Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 24 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 185 lb |
| Debut | 2025-03-18 |
Player profile / Chicago Cubs
Matt Shaw
RF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 185 lb · Age 24
Club Chicago Cubs
Position RF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 437 | 57 | 89 | 13 | 17 | .226 | .295 | .394 | .689 |
| 2026 | 165 | 24 | 36 | 5 | 4 | .250 | .331 | .451 | .782 |
| 2 Seasons | 602 | 81 | 125 | 18 | 21 | .233 | .305 | .410 | .715 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
34
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.305 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.312 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.295
0.312
0.328
0.343
wOBA
0.374
0.396
0.420
0.445
0.467
ISO
0.155
0.174
0.194
0.214
0.232
K%
16.9%
18.2%
19.5%
20.9%
22.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
32
Exit velocity85.5
23
Hard-hit%36.4%
40
+17 vs proj
xBA0.293
23
xSLG0.456
32
xwOBA0.305
50
-17 vs proj
BB%9.6%
64
Bat speed66.5
16
K%18.2%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
68
Arm Strength90.0 · RF
20
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
49
Range Runs1.0 · RF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts4.0 · RF
43
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
90
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
115 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.103 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Shaw’s wOBA sits at 0.420, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.305 — a gap of 0.115, -3.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 187 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2025-10-09 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 3 | 2026-09-02 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.872 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.318 xwOBA | 13 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, K, RBI |
| 2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR | 2 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 3 2B, 2 RBI, 3 R |
| 2026-04-14 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-13 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K |