Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Shaw, Matt
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.294
0.310
0.327
0.342
wOBA
0.363
0.386
0.412
0.437
0.460
ISO
0.142
0.160
0.181
0.202
0.221
K%
17.5%
18.8%
20.2%
21.6%
22.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
26
Exit velocity85.8
23
Hard-hit%37.3%
43
+22 vs proj
xBA0.304
31
xSLG0.453
29
xwOBA0.301
44
-19 vs proj
BB%8.9%
53
Bat speed66.5
16
K%19.5%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
70
Arm Strength90.0 · RF
22
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.9 · RF
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts4.0 · RF
50
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
90
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
45
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
85
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
102 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.094 |
| Sample | 169 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 436 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.318 | 0.276 to 0.365 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.113 to 0.240 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 2.6% to 7.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.1% | 27.6% to 41.5% | +/- 6.9% |
| K% | 20.2% | 18.9% to 26.4% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.2% to 11.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.255 to 0.326 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
121 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 13.3% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
vs RHP
360 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.199 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |