Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Carlos Santana

AZ · Hitter
OUT · 5 Neutral
MatchupAZ vs PITMitch Keller
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 13 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 11.4
V 15.1
Model 18.9% Market 13.5% Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 610 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.0% Market 74.0% Gap +13.5pp
BetMGM -285 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.4 · 1B
23 Regression applied
Range Runs-1.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.7 · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherMitch Keller
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)