Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-07-27
Palantir
11499 props
Brier 0.122
ECE 0.011
14d stable
Fangorn
11499 props
Brier 0.122
ECE 0.010
14d stable
Valinor
5904 props
Brier 0.116
ECE 0.006
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3 |
17.4%Palantir | 11.1%market | +6.3pp |
P
17.4
F
11.6
V
12.2
|
5.8pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Evan Carter
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 6 |
17.0%Palantir | 11.0%market | +6.0pp |
P
17.0
F
17.0
V
9.0
|
8.0pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2 |
17.3%Palantir | 13.1%market | +4.2pp |
P
17.3
F
15.5
V
13.7
|
3.5pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3 |
16.2%Palantir | 12.1%market | +4.1pp |
P
16.2
F
15.5
V
9.0
|
7.2pp | 1.003xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 695 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1 |
18.0%Palantir | 13.9%market | +4.0pp |
P
18.0
F
22.3
V
14.8
|
7.4pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 06 | IN | AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3 |
13.2%Palantir | 9.3%market | +3.8pp |
P
13.2
F
14.9
V
12.9
|
2.0pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 935 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6 |
11.3%Palantir | 7.7%market | +3.6pp |
P
11.3
F
15.5
V
10.3
|
5.3pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1 |
17.6%Palantir | 14.4%market | +3.3pp |
P
17.6
F
15.5
V
12.2
|
5.4pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 570 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5 |
16.9%Palantir | 13.8%market | +3.0pp |
P
16.9
F
15.5
V
12.7
|
4.2pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 595 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4 |
15.0%Palantir | 12.4%market | +2.6pp |
P
15.0
F
15.5
V
13.8
|
1.7pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3 |
17.6%Palantir | 15.6%market | +2.0pp |
P
17.6
F
20.2
V
12.9
|
7.3pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5 |
11.8%Palantir | 9.8%market | +2.0pp |
P
11.8
F
14.9
V
11.7
|
3.2pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 2 |
14.4%Palantir | 12.7%market | +1.7pp |
P
14.4
F
14.9
V
12.9
|
2.0pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1 |
16.6%Palantir | 15.0%market | +1.6pp |
P
16.6
F
15.5
V
13.9
|
2.7pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 540 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2 |
17.7%Palantir | 16.4%market | +1.3pp |
P
17.7
F
22.3
V
16.2
|
6.1pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6 |
14.6%Palantir | 13.6%market | +0.9pp |
P
14.6
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
3.9pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Zach McKinstry
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1 |
9.6%Palantir | 8.7%market | +0.9pp |
P
9.6
F
12.2
V
10.9
|
2.6pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3 |
13.6%Palantir | 13.0%market | +0.7pp |
P
13.6
F
15.5
V
13.3
|
2.2pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2 |
10.7%Palantir | 10.1%market | +0.6pp |
P
10.7
F
12.2
V
12.4
|
1.7pp | 1.017xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Colt Keith
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6 |
11.0%Palantir | 10.5%market | +0.5pp |
P
11.0
F
11.6
V
9.5
|
2.1pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4 |
15.3%Palantir | 14.8%market | +0.5pp |
P
15.3
F
15.5
V
14.4
|
1.1pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1 |
17.6%Palantir | 17.2%market | +0.4pp |
P
17.6
F
15.5
V
13.3
|
4.3pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 460 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4 |
16.4%Palantir | 17.0%market | -0.6pp |
P
16.4
F
15.5
V
13.3
|
3.0pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5 |
13.3%Palantir | 14.1%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.3
F
12.2
V
14.5
|
2.3pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 25 | Lineup pending | CWS vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4 |
11.2%Palantir | 12.2%market | -1.0pp |
P
11.2
F
13.4
V
8.0
|
5.4pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 720 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 6 |
12.3%Palantir | 13.4%market | -1.2pp |
P
12.3
F
9.3
V
10.6
|
3.0pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 645 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5 |
11.2%Palantir | 12.8%market | -1.6pp |
P
11.2
F
12.2
V
12.9
|
1.7pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 680 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5 |
13.7%Palantir | 15.9%market | -2.1pp |
P
13.7
F
14.9
V
15.6
|
1.9pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 530 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5 |
11.9%Palantir | 14.3%market | -2.4pp |
P
11.9
F
11.4
V
13.2
|
1.8pp | 1.003xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 600 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Joc Pederson
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5 |
12.2%Palantir | 14.8%market | -2.6pp |
P
12.2
F
15.5
V
12.1
|
3.4pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 575 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1 |
14.7%Palantir | 18.4%market | -3.6pp |
P
14.7
F
13.4
V
15.3
|
1.9pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 1 |
10.3%Palantir | 10.0%market | +0.3pp |
P
10.3
F
12.2
V
9.3
|
2.9pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1 |
7.9%Palantir | 7.7%market | +0.2pp |
P
7.9
F
9.6
V
11.6
|
3.6pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6 |
6.9%Palantir | 8.0%market | -1.1pp |
P
6.9
F
9.6
V
7.8
|
2.7pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1 |
6.7%Palantir | 8.0%market | -1.3pp |
P
6.7
F
7.4
V
12.4
|
5.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 2 |
15.1%Palantir | 17.2%market | -2.2pp |
P
15.1
F
15.5
V
14.1
|
1.4pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 480 avg 3 books |
| 37 | IN | AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1 |
16.1%Palantir | 18.4%market | -2.2pp |
P
16.1
F
15.5
V
16.7
|
1.2pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4 |
15.7%Palantir | 18.0%market | -2.3pp |
P
15.7
F
15.5
V
14.8
|
0.9pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 39 | IN | DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5 |
14.2%Palantir | 17.0%market | -2.7pp |
P
14.2
F
14.9
V
14.3
|
0.7pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 40 | IN | MIL vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 3 |
10.1%Palantir | 13.0%market | -2.8pp |
P
10.1
F
12.2
V
12.7
|
2.6pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1 |
5.1%Palantir | 8.0%market | -2.9pp |
P
5.1
F
3.4
V
10.6
|
7.1pp | 1.017xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Riley Greene
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4 |
15.4%Palantir | 18.5%market | -3.1pp |
P
15.4
F
15.5
V
14.4
|
1.1pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 440 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1 |
4.9%Palantir | 8.0%market | -3.1pp |
P
4.9
F
3.4
V
10.5
|
7.0pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2 |
15.5%Palantir | 19.4%market | -3.9pp |
P
15.5
F
14.9
V
14.3
|
1.1pp | 1.003xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4 |
15.2%Palantir | 20.4%market | -5.2pp |
P
15.2
F
14.9
V
14.1
|
1.1pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 390 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3 |
12.1%Palantir | 17.7%market | -5.6pp |
P
12.1
F
14.9
V
13.7
|
2.8pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
IN
|
AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2 |
14.7%Palantir | 21.1%market | -6.4pp |
P
14.7
F
15.5
V
17.8
|
3.1pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Jake Burger
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4 |
11.3%Palantir | 19.2%market | -7.9pp |
P
11.3
F
12.2
V
11.8
|
0.9pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3 |
13.7%Palantir | 21.7%market | -8.0pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
15.0
|
1.6pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 360 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2 |
14.8%Palantir | 23.0%market | -8.2pp |
P
14.8
F
13.4
V
15.6
|
2.2pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 335 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2 |
12.7%Palantir | 21.1%market | -8.4pp |
P
12.7
F
12.2
V
15.1
|
2.9pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
Data context
778 sample flagsStatus2381roster/transaction rows
Lineups216confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.