Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Carlos Santana

AZ · Hitter
Projected · 5 Neutral
MatchupAZ vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 7 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 11.7
V 10.2
Model 19.1% Market 13.5% Gap +5.1pp
FanDuel 610 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.0% Market 74.0% Gap +14.0pp
BetMGM -285 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.4 · 1B
22 Regression applied
Range Runs-1.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.7 · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.0%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)