Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
86
Matched
318
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-09-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
12.7%Palantir 9.3%market +3.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 7.5
5.7pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02 IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
14.1%Palantir 11.1%market +3.0pp
P 14.1
F 10.7
V 9.8
4.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
03 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
14.0%Palantir 12.7%market +1.2pp
P 14.0
F 15.3
V 11.1
4.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
04
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
14.9%Palantir 13.9%market +1.0pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 12.7
2.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
05 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
11.9%Palantir 11.0%market +0.9pp
P 11.9
F 13.4
V 8.7
4.7pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
11.4%Palantir 10.7%market +0.7pp
P 11.4
F 12.0
V 9.1
2.9pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
07 IN
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
9.4%Palantir 8.7%market +0.7pp
P 9.4
F 11.7
V 9.5
2.3pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
08 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
11.8%Palantir 11.3%market +0.5pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
11.0%Palantir 10.6%market +0.4pp
P 11.0
F 9.7
V 8.6
2.4pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
10 IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
11.9%Palantir 12.2%market -0.3pp
P 11.9
F 12.6
V 9.1
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
11 IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 4
12.6%Palantir 13.0%market -0.4pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 11.6
1.0pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
12 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
14.3%Palantir 14.8%market -0.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
13 IN
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 6
10.4%Palantir 11.0%market -0.6pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 7.5
4.1pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
14 IN
MIL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3
12.8%Palantir 13.5%market -0.7pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 12.0
1.1pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
15 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 2
14.1%Palantir 14.9%market -0.8pp
P 14.1
F 15.3
V 12.7
2.6pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
16 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
13.3%Palantir 14.1%market -0.8pp
P 13.3
F 12.5
V 15.0
2.5pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
17
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
12.8%Palantir 13.9%market -1.1pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 11.7
1.5pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 5
9.2%Palantir 10.3%market -1.1pp
P 9.2
F 12.0
V 8.8
3.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
19 IN
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 3
16.1%Palantir 17.7%market -1.6pp
P 16.1
F 16.1
V 20.2
4.1pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
20
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
13.9%Palantir 15.5%market -1.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 9.7
4.2pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
21 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
12.4%Palantir 14.1%market -1.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 9.9
3.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
10.7%Palantir 12.4%market -1.7pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 12.4
1.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
23 IN
STL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
12.0%Palantir 13.8%market -1.8pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 10.5
2.7pp 0.954xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
24 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
12.0%Palantir 14.1%market -2.1pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 14.5
2.5pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
25 IN
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
14.3%Palantir 16.4%market -2.1pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 15.2
2.0pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
12.0%Palantir 14.2%market -2.2pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 11.1
0.9pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
27 IN
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
13.6%Palantir 15.8%market -2.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
0.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
28 IN
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
14.3%Palantir 16.7%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 14.8
1.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
COL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
10.0%Palantir 12.5%market -2.5pp
P 10.0
F 11.7
V 6.9
4.8pp 1.034xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
30 IN
MIA vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
12.6%Palantir 15.3%market -2.6pp
P 12.6
F 12.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
31 IN
COL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
10.2%Palantir 13.1%market -2.8pp
P 10.2
F 10.7
V 7.2
3.5pp 1.034xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 5
9.9%Palantir 13.0%market -3.1pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 18.4
8.5pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
11.1%Palantir 14.2%market -3.1pp
P 11.1
F 11.7
V 10.2
1.4pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
34 IN
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 1
14.5%Palantir 17.7%market -3.2pp
P 14.5
F 13.2
V 20.7
7.5pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
35 IN
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
10.3%Palantir 13.5%market -3.2pp
P 10.3
F 12.0
V 11.6
1.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
36 IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
11.8%Palantir 15.3%market -3.4pp
P 11.8
F 12.5
V 9.4
3.2pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
37 IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
10.1%Palantir 13.8%market -3.7pp
P 10.1
F 10.7
V 11.5
1.4pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
38 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
15.6%Palantir 19.6%market -4.0pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.1pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 6
9.2%Palantir 7.7%market +1.5pp
P 9.2
F 12.0
V 7.6
4.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
12.3%Palantir 11.0%market +1.3pp
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 8.9
3.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
41 IN
MIL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
9.7%Palantir 8.7%market +1.0pp
P 9.7
F 12.0
V 10.5
2.3pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
42 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
7.8%Palantir 8.0%market -0.2pp
P 7.8
F 10.3
V 11.2
3.4pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
MIA vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
9.4%Palantir 9.8%market -0.4pp
P 9.4
F 11.7
V 12.9
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 915 avg 3 books
44 IN
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
8.4%Palantir 9.2%market -0.8pp
P 8.4
F 10.8
V 8.6
2.4pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 990 avg 3 books
45 IN
STL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
11.8%Palantir 13.0%market -1.2pp
P 11.8
F 12.0
V 10.5
1.5pp 0.954xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
46 IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
6.1%Palantir 8.0%market -1.9pp
P 6.1
F 9.7
V 8.7
3.6pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
MIL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
14.0%Palantir 16.3%market -2.3pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.8pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
48 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
12.7%Palantir 15.0%market -2.4pp
P 12.7
F 12.5
V 13.1
0.6pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
49 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
12.0%Palantir 14.5%market -2.5pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 12.2
0.2pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
50 IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
14.8%Palantir 17.4%market -2.6pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
51 IN
MIA vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 6
9.9%Palantir 12.5%market -2.6pp
P 9.9
F 10.7
V 12.7
2.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
15.2%Palantir 18.4%market -3.2pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 11.4
3.7pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
53
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 2
8.9%Palantir 12.2%market -3.3pp
P 8.9
F 10.7
V 10.6
1.8pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
54 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
12.9%Palantir 16.4%market -3.5pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
55 IN
ATH vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4
12.1%Palantir 15.6%market -3.5pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 11.5
1.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 5
13.3%Palantir 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.1
0.9pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
STL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
4.3%Palantir 8.0%market -3.7pp
P 4.3
F 0.0
V 10.3
10.2pp 0.954xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
58 IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
14.8%Palantir 18.7%market -3.9pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 10.7
4.1pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
59 IN
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 4
13.9%Palantir 18.0%market -4.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 20.3
7.2pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
60 IN
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
14.4%Palantir 18.5%market -4.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
61 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
3.6%Palantir 8.0%market -4.4pp
P 3.6
F 0.0
V 4.5
4.4pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
13.5%Palantir 18.0%market -4.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.1pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
63 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
11.9%Palantir 17.0%market -5.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.0
V 13.5
1.6pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
64 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
10.8%Palantir 16.0%market -5.2pp
P 10.8
F 13.2
V 13.4
2.5pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
13.1%Palantir 18.4%market -5.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.0
V 14.5
2.5pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
66 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
12.5%Palantir 18.0%market -5.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.0
V 13.4
1.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
67 IN
COL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
12.5%Palantir 18.0%market -5.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 8.3
4.9pp 1.034xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
68 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
14.8%Palantir 20.4%market -5.6pp
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 14.0
1.6pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
69 IN
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
12.7%Palantir 18.4%market -5.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.0
V 15.3
3.3pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
70 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
9.1%Palantir 14.8%market -5.7pp
P 9.1
F 12.0
V 12.8
3.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
71 IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
13.5%Palantir 19.4%market -5.9pp
P 13.5
F 12.5
V 13.0
1.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
72 IN
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
14.4%Palantir 20.4%market -6.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.1
1.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
73 IN
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
12.9%Palantir 19.1%market -6.1pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 15.6
3.0pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
74 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
10.7%Palantir 17.0%market -6.3pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 14.4
3.7pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
75 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
12.9%Palantir 19.4%market -6.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 16.7
4.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
76 IN
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
14.0%Palantir 21.1%market -7.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.1pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
77 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
13.8%Palantir 21.7%market -8.0pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.0pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
78 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
12.7%Palantir 22.0%market -9.3pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.9pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
79 IN
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
12.9%Palantir 23.0%market -10.1pp
P 12.9
F 12.0
V 16.0
4.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
80 IN
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 3
12.0%Palantir 22.5%market -10.5pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
81 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
8.5%Palantir 19.2%market -10.8pp
P 8.5
F 10.7
V 12.7
4.3pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
82
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
13.3%Palantir 24.1%market -10.8pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 12.3
1.1pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
83 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
11.5%Palantir 22.5%market -11.0pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 14.3
2.8pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
84 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
14.4%Palantir 27.0%market -12.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 15.7
2.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
85 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
12.5%Palantir 26.3%market -13.8pp
P 12.5
F 10.8
V 14.6
3.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
86 Lineup pending
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
13.0%Palantir 29.0%market -16.0pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 19.7
6.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

840 sample flags
Status2404roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.