Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Jose Altuve

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupHOU vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 13.2
V 14.7
Model 19.5% Market 15.0% Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.6% Market 79.6% Gap +16.1pp
BetMGM -390 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 23.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.9% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
25 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity85.0
20
Hard-hit%33.0%
27
xBA0.286
18
xSLG0.422
21
xwOBA0.273
22 -33 vs proj
BB%7.5%
37
Bat speed65.8
11
K%21.0%
61 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength76.9 · 2B
1
Outs Above Avg-9.0 · 2B
1
Range Runs-6.4 · 2B
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · 2B
19
Bolts15.0 · 2B
70
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
20
Sprint Speed27.5 · 2B
50

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.360
RegressionNegative · -0.053
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)