Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jose Altuve

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample8344.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 15.1
Model 17.5% Market 15.0% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.8% Market 79.4% Gap +16.0pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 27.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.4% Market -- Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
24 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity84.9
18
Hard-hit%32.9%
26
xBA0.287
18
xSLG0.422
21
xwOBA0.274
22 -33 vs proj
BB%7.4%
36
Bat speed65.9
11
K%20.8%
61 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength76.9 · 2B
1
Outs Above Avg-9.0 · 2B
1
Range Runs-7.0 · 2B
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 2B
16
Bolts15.0 · 2B
70
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
20
Sprint Speed27.5 · 2B
50
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8%
55
Correct Decisions62.5%
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.360
RegressionNegative · -0.054
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)