Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-08-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-04

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 37
IL10 · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs STLHunter Dobbins
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.7
F 13.7
V 13.6
Model 16.5% Market 22.2% Gap -5.7pp
BetMGM 350 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.2% Market 71.0% Gap +12.5pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%15.3%
100
Exit velocity95.4
100
Hard-hit%47.9%
87
xBA0.361
86
xSLG0.688
94
xwOBA0.326
71
BB%5.4%
17 -33 vs proj
Bat speed77.4
100
K%29.7%
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.8 · DH
1
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.1%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherHunter Dobbins
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)