Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
70
Matched
288
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
 15.5%Palantir 9.1%market +6.4pp
P 15.5
F 15.8
V 10.7
5.1pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
 17.6%Palantir 13.1%market +4.5pp
P 17.6
F 14.3
V 12.2
5.4pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
03
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 12.7%Palantir 9.3%market +3.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.7
V 9.1
4.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
04
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 15.1%Palantir 11.8%market +3.3pp
P 15.1
F 13.7
V 11.5
3.6pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
05
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 17.0%Palantir 13.7%market +3.3pp
P 17.0
F 15.3
V 14.4
2.6pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
06
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 16.5%Palantir 14.0%market +2.5pp
P 16.5
F 13.9
V 12.8
3.7pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
07
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3
 14.4%Palantir 12.1%market +2.3pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 9.6
4.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
08
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 12.7%market +2.3pp
P 15.1
F 13.7
V 12.9
2.2pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
09
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
 12.8%Palantir 10.5%market +2.3pp
P 12.8
F 11.2
V 10.3
2.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
10
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 17.2%Palantir 15.0%market +2.2pp
P 17.2
F 14.3
V 13.8
3.4pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
11
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 12.3%Palantir 10.1%market +2.2pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 10.6
2.2pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
12
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
 14.0%Palantir 12.3%market +1.6pp
P 14.0
F 15.3
V 14.9
1.3pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
13
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 14.7%Palantir 13.3%market +1.4pp
P 14.7
F 13.9
V 12.4
2.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
14
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
 8.9%Palantir 9.2%market -0.3pp
P 8.9
F 0.0
V 9.7
9.6pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
15
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
 9.9%Palantir 10.3%market -0.4pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 9.7
2.8pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
16
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2
 16.5%Palantir 17.0%market -0.4pp
P 16.5
F 13.9
V 16.0
2.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
17
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 15.0%Palantir 15.6%market -0.6pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 13.3
1.7pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
18
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
 12.8%Palantir 13.4%market -0.6pp
P 12.8
F 11.5
V 11.8
1.3pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
19
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 8.5%Palantir 9.2%market -0.7pp
P 8.5
F 12.4
V 10.0
3.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 990 avg 3 books
20
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 16.9%Palantir 17.7%market -0.8pp
P 16.9
F 13.9
V 16.6
3.0pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
21
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
 9.2%Palantir 10.1%market -0.9pp
P 9.2
F 12.7
V 10.1
3.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 890 avg 3 books
22
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 13.1%Palantir 14.1%market -1.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
23
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 11.7%Palantir 12.8%market -1.1pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 13.1
1.5pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
24
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 6
 13.1%Palantir 14.3%market -1.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
25
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 15.7%Palantir 17.0%market -1.2pp
P 15.7
F 14.3
V 16.6
2.3pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
26
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 11.8%Palantir 13.1%market -1.3pp
P 11.8
F 11.7
V 10.7
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
27
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 1
 16.4%Palantir 17.7%market -1.3pp
P 16.4
F 13.9
V 13.5
2.9pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
28
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
 9.7%Palantir 11.0%market -1.3pp
P 9.7
F 12.4
V 9.0
3.4pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
29
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 9.9%Palantir 11.3%market -1.4pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 9.3
3.2pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 785 avg 3 books
30
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 14.4%Palantir 15.9%market -1.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 14.8
1.7pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
31
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 14.1%market -1.5pp
P 12.6
F 12.7
V 14.7
2.1pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
32
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 5
 14.6%Palantir 16.1%market -1.5pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 15.2
1.5pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
33
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 16.7%Palantir 18.4%market -1.7pp
P 16.7
F 13.9
V 15.2
2.8pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
34
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 14.7%market -1.8pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 12.2
0.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
35
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 4
 13.7%Palantir 15.5%market -1.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
36
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 10.7%Palantir 12.6%market -1.8pp
P 10.7
F 12.4
V 10.8
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
37
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
 15.2%Palantir 17.7%market -2.5pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 20.2
6.5pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
38
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 14.5%Palantir 17.5%market -3.1pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 16.3
2.6pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
39
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5
 9.6%Palantir 13.0%market -3.4pp
P 9.6
F 12.4
V 18.1
8.5pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
40
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
 10.8%Palantir 14.3%market -3.5pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 12.4
1.6pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
41
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 12.3%Palantir 15.9%market -3.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 13.6
1.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
42
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 7.1%Palantir 8.0%market -0.9pp
P 7.1
F 11.6
V 16.8
9.8pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 14.9%Palantir 16.3%market -1.3pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
44
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 6.5%Palantir 8.0%market -1.5pp
P 6.5
F 11.2
V 11.3
4.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 7.0%Palantir 8.8%market -1.8pp
P 7.0
F 11.2
V 13.3
6.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1035 avg 3 books
46
Xavier Edwards MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 5.7%Palantir 8.0%market -2.3pp
P 5.7
F 10.6
V 9.2
4.9pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
47
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 15.0%Palantir 17.9%market -2.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 14.5
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
48
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 15.4%Palantir 18.4%market -2.9pp
P 15.4
F 13.9
V 12.2
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
49
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 12.1%Palantir 15.3%market -3.2pp
P 12.1
F 11.5
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
50
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 14.4%Palantir 18.0%market -3.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 19.8
6.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
51
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
 12.4%Palantir 16.3%market -3.8pp
P 12.4
F 13.9
V 11.2
2.7pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
52
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 13.1%Palantir 17.0%market -3.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
53
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3
 15.2%Palantir 19.1%market -3.9pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 16.8
3.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
54
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 2
 15.8%Palantir 19.8%market -4.0pp
P 15.8
F 15.8
V 13.2
2.7pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
55
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 14.3%Palantir 18.5%market -4.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 14.8
0.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
56
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 11.2%Palantir 16.0%market -4.8pp
P 11.2
F 13.7
V 13.7
2.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
57
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
 13.1%Palantir 18.0%market -5.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 12.6
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
58
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 20.2%market -5.1pp
P 15.1
F 13.2
V 16.2
2.9pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
59
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 14.0%Palantir 19.2%market -5.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
60
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
 14.1%Palantir 19.4%market -5.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.6pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
61
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 19.6%market -5.4pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 14.9
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
62
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 18.4%market -5.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 15.7
3.0pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
63
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 13.8%Palantir 19.4%market -5.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
64
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 11.0%Palantir 17.0%market -6.0pp
P 11.0
F 12.7
V 14.6
3.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
65
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 4
 14.5%Palantir 20.8%market -6.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 13.0
1.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
66
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 14.8%Palantir 21.7%market -7.0pp
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
67
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 21.1%market -7.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 13.0
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
68
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 6
 12.1%Palantir 19.2%market -7.2pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 12.3
0.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
69
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 21.7%market -7.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 16.2
2.9pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 1
 15.1%Palantir 29.8%market -14.7pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 20.1
6.2pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2533roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.