Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 37
IL60 · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 10 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 13.4
V 13.5
Model 17.1% Market 22.2% Gap -5.1pp
BetMGM 350 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.2% Market 71.0% Gap +12.8pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%15.3%
100
Exit velocity95.4
100
Hard-hit%47.9%
88
xBA0.361
88
xSLG0.688
93
xwOBA0.326
73
BB%5.4%
17 -36 vs proj
Bat speed77.4
100
K%29.7%
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.8 · DH
1

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)