Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Salvador Perez

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs MINJoe Ryan
Sample6865.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 20.0
Model 19.6% Market 17.2% Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.7% Market 74.7% Gap +13.6pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.2% Market -- Gap +7.1pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
87
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%43.4%
70
xBA0.295
23
xSLG0.527
57
xwOBA0.299
41 -33 vs proj
BB%4.0%
8
Bat speed70.2
59
K%20.4%
62
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.7 · C
22
Catcher Throwing0.2 · C
67
Framing Runs-5.5 · C
4
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · C
6
Pop Time2.0 · C
27
Range Runs-3.2 · C
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.9 · DH
1
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.9%
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1%
83
Correct Decisions62.9%
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.248 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.372
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherJoe Ryan
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)