Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
67
Matched
267
Lineups
288
HR BOARD 2026-07-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 6
 15.2%Palantir 9.1%market +6.1pp
P 15.2
F 22.3
V 10.8
11.5pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 7
 11.3%Palantir 8.5%market +2.8pp
P 11.3
F 12.2
V 8.6
3.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
03
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 13.5%Palantir 10.9%market +2.6pp
P 13.5
F 12.2
V 11.5
2.0pp 1.071xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
04
Rob Refsnyder SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 12.2%market +2.4pp
P 14.5
F 22.3
V 11.6
10.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 695 avg 3 books
05
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 13.0%Palantir 11.0%market +2.0pp
P 13.0
F 15.5
V 9.0
6.5pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 16.7%Palantir 14.8%market +1.9pp
P 16.7
F 22.3
V 13.7
8.5pp 1.116xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
07
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 15.9%Palantir 14.1%market +1.7pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 12.5
3.3pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
08
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 12.3%Palantir 10.7%market +1.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.6
V 9.5
4.1pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
09
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
 15.9%Palantir 14.4%market +1.6pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 13.2
2.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
10
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
 10.7%Palantir 9.4%market +1.3pp
P 10.7
F 12.2
V 11.3
1.5pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
11
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 9.6%Palantir 8.7%market +0.9pp
P 9.6
F 11.6
V 10.7
2.0pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
12
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
 15.6%Palantir 15.0%market +0.6pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 14.1
1.6pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
13
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 15.8%Palantir 16.5%market -0.7pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 15.5
0.9pp 1.071xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
14
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
 16.1%Palantir 17.0%market -0.9pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.8pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
15
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 16.0%Palantir 17.1%market -1.1pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.0
1.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
16
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 1
 16.6%Palantir 17.7%market -1.1pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 16.5
1.0pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
17
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 14.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.9
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
18
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 6
 11.3%Palantir 12.5%market -1.2pp
P 11.3
F 9.6
V 9.8
1.7pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
19
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 14.1%market -1.5pp
P 12.6
F 12.2
V 20.7
8.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 2
 15.4%Palantir 17.0%market -1.6pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 16.5
1.1pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
21
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
 11.7%Palantir 13.5%market -1.9pp
P 11.7
F 13.6
V 7.3
6.2pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
22
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 14.2%Palantir 16.1%market -1.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
23
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
 11.6%Palantir 13.5%market -2.0pp
P 11.6
F 13.4
V 13.3
1.8pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
24
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 17.5%Palantir 19.6%market -2.1pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 13.5
4.1pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
25
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
 16.6%Palantir 18.7%market -2.1pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 13.5
3.1pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
26
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 15.5%market -2.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 11.7
1.7pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
27
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 13.5%Palantir 16.1%market -2.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.6
V 12.8
0.8pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
28
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5
 9.8%Palantir 13.0%market -3.2pp
P 9.8
F 11.4
V 18.3
8.5pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
29
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 17.5%market -3.4pp
P 14.2
F 14.9
V 16.1
2.0pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
30
Jahmai Jones DET
IN
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 17.0%Palantir 13.6%market +3.4pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 14.2
2.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
31
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
 15.9%Palantir 13.1%market +2.8pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 12.1
3.8pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
32
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 10.1%Palantir 10.5%market -0.4pp
P 10.1
F 12.2
V 9.3
2.9pp 0.963xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 855 avg 3 books
33
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 6.1%Palantir 8.0%market -1.9pp
P 6.1
F 5.2
V 13.1
7.9pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
34
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 6
 11.7%Palantir 13.6%market -1.9pp
P 11.7
F 12.2
V 9.6
2.7pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
35
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 5.9%Palantir 8.0%market -2.1pp
P 5.9
F 7.4
V 9.4
3.5pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
36
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 14.7%Palantir 17.2%market -2.5pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 12.4
3.1pp 0.963xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
37
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 5.3%Palantir 8.0%market -2.7pp
P 5.3
F 7.4
V 10.6
5.3pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 14.5%Palantir 17.7%market -3.2pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 15.1
0.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
39
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 9.7%Palantir 13.0%market -3.3pp
P 9.7
F 11.6
V 11.3
1.9pp 0.963xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
40
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 14.6%Palantir 18.0%market -3.4pp
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 20.0
5.5pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
41
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 13.8%Palantir 17.5%market -3.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.8pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
42
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 15.4%Palantir 19.2%market -3.8pp
P 15.4
F 17.0
V 14.5
2.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
43
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4
 14.9%Palantir 18.7%market -3.8pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 16.1
1.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
44
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 17.4%market -4.1pp
P 13.3
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
45
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 5
 11.1%Palantir 15.3%market -4.2pp
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 12.2
1.1pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
46
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 14.8%Palantir 19.1%market -4.3pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 14.9
0.2pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
47
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 14.3%Palantir 18.7%market -4.4pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 13.0
2.5pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
48
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6
 11.5%Palantir 16.3%market -4.8pp
P 11.5
F 14.9
V 11.9
3.4pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
49
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 15.3%Palantir 20.4%market -5.1pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
50
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
 2.9%Palantir 8.0%market -5.1pp
P 2.9
F 0.0
V 10.4
10.4pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
51
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 14.6%Palantir 20.0%market -5.4pp
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 22.1
7.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
52
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
 11.8%Palantir 17.4%market -5.6pp
P 11.8
F 11.4
V 15.3
3.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
53
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
 11.8%Palantir 17.5%market -5.8pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 22.0
10.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
54
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 19.6%market -5.8pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 13.6
1.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
55
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 12.5%Palantir 18.4%market -5.8pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
56
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 19.2%market -6.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.6
V 15.0
2.0pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
57
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 13.7%Palantir 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 13.7
F 12.2
V 21.8
9.6pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
58
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
 11.9%Palantir 19.1%market -7.1pp
P 11.9
F 14.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
59
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
 11.7%Palantir 19.2%market -7.6pp
P 11.7
F 12.2
V 10.8
1.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
60
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 14.7%Palantir 22.7%market -8.0pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 13.4
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
61
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 13.3%Palantir 22.0%market -8.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
62
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3
 13.7%Palantir 22.5%market -8.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 16.3
2.9pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
63
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 23.8%market -9.9pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 16.0
3.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
64
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 3
 15.0%Palantir 25.6%market -10.6pp
P 15.0
F 11.6
V 14.2
3.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
65
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 16.1%Palantir 27.0%market -10.9pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 13.3
2.8pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
66
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 9.9%Palantir 23.3%market -13.4pp
P 9.9
F 9.3
V 10.6
1.3pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
67
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 14.7%Palantir 29.8%market -15.2pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 18.0
3.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

782 sample flags
Status2412roster/transaction rows
Lineups288confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.