Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Salvador Perez

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample7007.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 28 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.4
F 12.0
V 16.0
Model 17.1% Market 17.5% Gap -1.1pp
DraftKings 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.1% Market 75.6% Gap +14.6pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.1% Market -- Gap +6.9pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
88
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%43.0%
72
xBA0.309
38
xSLG0.542
63
xwOBA0.310
58 -21 vs proj
BB%3.8%
8
Bat speed70.1
57
K%19.0%
72 +23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
15
Catcher Throwing1.0 · C
71
Framing Runs-6.5 · C
5
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · C
5
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Range Runs-2.7 · C
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · DH
7
Sprint Speed23.7 · DH
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.9%
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9%
81
Correct Decisions62.0%
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.372
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)