Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Marcell Ozuna

PIT · Hitter
OUT · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CWSSean Burke
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 12.0
V 14.6
Model 20.8% Market 20.5% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.1% Market 75.0% Gap +14.3pp
BetMGM -300 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
43
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%37.9%
48
xBA0.326
59
xSLG0.574
74
xwOBA0.304
50
BB%9.0%
58
Bat speed71.9
78
K%28.1%
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.7 · DH
4
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
48
Correct Decisions67.3%
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)