Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-28

George Springer

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 37
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample5851.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 16.0
Model 19.5% Market 16.7% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.3% Market 79.4% Gap +15.1pp
BetMGM -385 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.7% Market -- Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity88.7
58
Hard-hit%40.7%
57
xBA0.294
22
xSLG0.481
40
xwOBA0.307
52 -24 vs proj
BB%10.0%
68
Bat speed70.5
63
K%18.3%
73
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
62 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · DH
20
SB Success Rate66.7% · DH
20
Sprint Speed26.8 · DH
34
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.4%
82
Correct Decisions72.0%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.320
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.290 to 0.384
RegressionNegative · -0.061
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)