Mithrandir Metrics
AL 2026-07-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-14

Mike Trout

AL · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAL vs NLCristopher Sánchez
Sample6250.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.8
F 15.9
V 14.8
Model 19.3% Market 21.7% Gap -2.4pp
BetMGM 360 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.5% Market 74.4% Gap +10.2pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 62.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.5% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.5%
97 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
82
Hard-hit%49.5%
89
xBA0.379
92
xSLG0.805
98
xwOBA0.409
99 +17 vs proj
BB%18.8%
100
Bat speed73.2
91
K%24.7%
37 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
66
Arm Strength93.2 · CF
53
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
10
Range Runs-2.6 · CF
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
43
Bolts5.0 · CF
56
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3%
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions69.8%
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.377 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherCristopher Sánchez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)