Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Mike Trout

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample6431.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 9.0
Model 16.8% Market 19.2% Gap -2.4pp
BetMGM 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.1% Market 69.7% Gap +12.5pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.5% Market -- Gap +6.5pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
89
Exit velocity89.9
76
Hard-hit%45.5%
82
xBA0.370
93
xSLG0.709
96
xwOBA0.375
98
BB%15.9%
98
Bat speed72.6
86
K%26.0%
33 +17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
75
Arm Strength93.2 · CF
48
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · CF
6
Range Runs-3.8 · CF
17
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · CF
23
Bolts7.0 · CF
56
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
94
Sprint Speed28.6 · CF
82
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.2%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.2%
31
Correct Decisions68.7%
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)