Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-06-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-04

Bryce Harper

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 3 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs SDLucas Giolito
Sample6648.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 24.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 24.0% Market 18.7% Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 48.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.0% Market 46.8% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
93 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
70
Hard-hit%43.9%
67
xBA0.373
87
xSLG0.736
94
xwOBA0.414
98 +15 vs proj
BB%13.7%
90
Bat speed72.4
84
K%18.8%
70 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 1B
2
Range Runs-5.8 · 1B
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
29
SB Success Rate60.0% · 1B
14
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
42
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0%
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5%
90
Correct Decisions65.9%
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.414
RegressionPositive · 0.020
Opposing pitcherLucas Giolito
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)