Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-06-04 · saved artifact ROWS 48 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 1.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs SDLucas Giolito	P 69.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.5%Over prob · Palantir	82.0%no-vig	-0.38%	2.789count	0.6946prob	1.5613proj	1.085context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
02	Anthony SantanderTOR	TOR vs ATLChris Sale	P 28.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	71.7%Under prob · Palantir	70.6%no-vig	-1.08%	0.8634count	0.2833prob	0.4043proj	1.021context	BetMGM 240 avg 1 books
03	Zack GelofATH	ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga	P 23.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.5%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.64%	1.6108count	0.4669prob	0.8312proj	0.913context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
04	Cody BellingerNYY	NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 68.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	68.5%Over prob · Palantir	80.4%no-vig	-0.36%	2.836count	0.6849prob	1.4909proj	1.084context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
05	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 24.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.5%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.65%	1.6444count	0.4618prob	0.8168proj	1.057context	FanDuel 360 avg 1 books
06	Gunnar HendersonBAL	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello	P 69.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.5%Over prob · Palantir	78.9%no-vig	-0.40%	2.8398count	0.6947prob	1.4328proj	1.056context	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
07	Christian YelichMIL	MIL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 64.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.9%Over prob · Palantir	78.4%no-vig	-0.42%	2.6265count	0.6492prob	1.4088proj	1.057context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
08	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR	TOR vs ATLChris Sale	P 67.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.3%Over prob · Palantir	80.0%no-vig	-0.31%	2.6991count	0.6731prob	1.467proj	1.021context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
09	Alec BohmPHI	PHI vs SDLucas Giolito	P 63.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	63.0%Over prob · Palantir	78.1%no-vig	-0.39%	2.3667count	0.63prob	1.3671proj	1.085context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
10	Jackson MerrillSD	SD vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 67.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.8%Over prob · Palantir	78.1%no-vig	-0.39%	2.6386count	0.6775prob	1.3793proj	1.019context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
11	Brice TurangMIL	MIL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 60.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	60.8%Over prob · Palantir	78.1%no-vig	-0.31%	2.2865count	0.6081prob	1.3983proj	1.057context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
12	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs SDLucas Giolito	P 48.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.0%Over prob · Palantir	78.9%no-vig	-0.77%	2.8915count	0.693prob	1.4261proj	1.085context	FanDuel 280 avg 1 books
13	Jarren DuranBOS	BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers	P 68.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	68.2%Over prob · Palantir	76.8%no-vig	-0.36%	2.5271count	0.6818prob	1.3269proj	1.089context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
14	Willson ContrerasBOS	BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers	P 63.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	63.3%Over prob · Palantir	74.7%no-vig	-0.48%	2.4721count	0.6335prob	1.2627proj	1.089context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
15	George SpringerTOR	TOR vs ATLChris Sale	P 40.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	40.6%Over prob · Palantir	75.6%no-vig	-1.12%	2.4592count	0.6215prob	1.3025proj	1.021context	FanDuel 440 avg 1 books
16	Byron BuxtonMIN	MIN vs KCSeth Lugo	P 67.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.6%Over prob · Palantir	72.2%no-vig	-0.55%	2.5929count	0.6756prob	1.1636proj	0.998context	FanDuel -135 avg 1 books
17	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs SDLucas Giolito	P 57.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.6%Over prob · Palantir	72.2%no-vig	-0.56%	2.1268count	0.5763prob	1.1619proj	1.085context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
18	Manny MachadoSD	SD vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 62.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	62.0%Over prob · Palantir	75.9%no-vig	-0.48%	2.4399count	0.6195prob	1.2992proj	1.019context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
19	Josh BellMIN	MIN vs KCSeth Lugo	P 58.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	58.1%Over prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	-0.46%	2.1966count	0.581prob	1.1568proj	0.998context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
20	Adley RutschmanBAL	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello	P 33.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	33.3%Over prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	-0.54%	2.0763count	0.5598prob	1.1614proj	1.056context	FanDuel 195 avg 1 books
21	Fernando Tatis Jr.SD	SD vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 62.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	62.0%Over prob · Palantir	75.0%no-vig	-0.35%	2.399count	0.6201prob	1.2688proj	1.019context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
22	Taylor WardBAL	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello	P 61.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.7%Over prob · Palantir	70.9%no-vig	-0.36%	2.3596count	0.6168prob	1.1318proj	1.056context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
23	Luke KeaschallMIN	MIN vs KCSeth Lugo	P 48.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.7%Over prob · Palantir	69.6%no-vig	-0.59%	1.7758count	0.4874prob	1.0896proj	0.998context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
24	Sal FrelickMIL	MIL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 44.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	44.1%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.29%	1.5577count	0.4411prob	1.0277proj	1.057context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
25	Pete AlonsoBAL	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello	P 44.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	44.2%Over prob · Palantir	74.0%no-vig	-1.22%	2.7372count	0.6702prob	1.2348proj	1.056context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
26	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs SDLucas Giolito	P 45.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	45.2%Over prob · Palantir	70.9%no-vig	-1.27%	2.8182count	0.6483prob	1.1526proj	1.085context	FanDuel 180 avg 1 books
27	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs SDLucas Giolito	P 52.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	52.2%Over prob · Palantir	70.9%no-vig	-0.44%	1.8821count	0.5217prob	1.118proj	1.085context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
28	Luis RengifoMIL	MIL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 49.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.7%Over prob · Palantir	69.0%no-vig	-0.50%	1.7683count	0.4968prob	1.059proj	1.057context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
29	Caleb DurbinBOS	BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers	P 49.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.6%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.47%	1.7629count	0.496prob	1.0194proj	1.089context	FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
30	Victor CaratiniMIN	MIN vs KCSeth Lugo	P 48.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.6%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.50%	1.7564count	0.4862prob	1.0101proj	0.998context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
31	Jacob WilsonATH	ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga	P 46.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	46.9%Over prob · Palantir	70.3%no-vig	-0.71%	1.6893count	0.4691prob	1.0944proj	0.913context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
32	Paul GoldschmidtNYY	NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 52.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	52.9%Over prob · Palantir	69.5%no-vig	-0.58%	1.9247count	0.5293prob	1.0697proj	1.084context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
33	Xander BogaertsSD	SD vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 47.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.9%Over prob · Palantir	67.9%no-vig	-0.50%	1.7002count	0.4785prob	1.028proj	1.019context	FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
34	David FryCLE	CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.7%Over prob · Palantir	59.1%no-vig	+4.50%	1.6079count	0.4566prob	0.8265proj	0.928context	FanDuel 500 avg 1 books
35	J.t. RealmutoPHI	PHI vs SDLucas Giolito	P 53.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.9%Over prob · Palantir	69.9%no-vig	-0.57%	1.9536count	0.5386prob	1.081proj	1.085context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
36	Steven KwanCLE	CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón	P 41.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	41.5%Over prob · Palantir	67.9%no-vig	-0.54%	1.5117count	0.4152prob	1.0441proj	0.928context	FanDuel 230 avg 1 books
37	Miguel AndujarSD	SD vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 44.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	44.6%Over prob · Palantir	67.3%no-vig	-0.35%	1.5793count	0.4465prob	0.9934proj	1.019context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
38	Ben RiceNYY	NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 57.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.9%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.66%	2.2016count	0.579prob	1.0241proj	1.084context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
39	Trevor LarnachMIN	MIN vs KCSeth Lugo	P 52.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	52.0%Over prob · Palantir	66.8%no-vig	-0.42%	1.8686count	0.5198prob	0.9994proj	0.998context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
40	Leody TaverasBAL	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello	P 24.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.6%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	+3.54%	1.6655count	0.4791prob	0.9538proj	1.056context	FanDuel 500 avg 1 books
41	Colton CowserBAL	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello	P 49.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.9%Over prob · Palantir	60.7%no-vig	-0.24%	1.7906count	0.4986prob	0.8624proj	1.056context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
42	Alejandro KirkTOR	TOR vs ATLChris Sale	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.7%Over prob · Palantir	66.8%no-vig	+4.45%	1.6249count	0.4581prob	0.9952proj	1.021context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
43	Carlos NarváezBOS	BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers	P 53.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.6%Over prob · Palantir	66.2%no-vig	-0.95%	1.8819count	0.536prob	0.9816proj	1.089context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
44	Daulton VarshoTOR	TOR vs ATLChris Sale	P 46.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	46.2%Over prob · Palantir	55.3%no-vig	-0.32%	1.5547count	0.4618prob	0.7402proj	1.021context	FanDuel 210 avg 1 books
45	Carson KellyCHC	CHC vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 24.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.2%Over prob · Palantir	62.8%no-vig	+3.93%	1.6422count	0.4632prob	0.8923proj	1.057context	DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
46	Gavin SheetsSD	SD vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 48.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.5%Over prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	-0.53%	1.7098count	0.4852prob	0.9362proj	1.019context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
47	Trent GrishamNYY	NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 48.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.4%Over prob · Palantir	61.4%no-vig	-0.53%	1.8613count	0.4836prob	0.8772proj	1.084context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
48	Jackson ChourioMIL	MIL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 30.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	30.0%Over prob · Palantir	42.5%no-vig	-0.95%	0.9326count	0.3prob	0.4883proj	1.057context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books