Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Bryce Harper

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs HOUCristian Javier
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 17.6
Model 22.3% Market 18.7% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.5% Market 82.6% Gap +17.3pp
BetMGM -475 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 30.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.1% Market -- Gap +0.5pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
78
Exit velocity90.4
82
Hard-hit%45.3%
80
xBA0.372
93
xSLG0.668
91
xwOBA0.389
99
BB%16.2%
99
Bat speed72.4
83
K%21.4%
58
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · 1B
90
Arm Strength93.7 · 1B
92
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
8
Range Runs-6.0 · 1B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.3 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate44.4% · 1B
2
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
44

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.414
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherCristian Javier
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)