Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Bryce Harper

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs ATLChris Sale
Sample6951.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 12.5
V 13.1
Model 17.6% Market 18.4% Gap -1.4pp
DraftKings 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.7% Market 79.4% Gap +16.0pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.3% Market -- Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
78
Exit velocity90.4
83
Hard-hit%45.5%
82
xBA0.372
93
xSLG0.667
91
xwOBA0.389
99
BB%16.1%
98
Bat speed72.4
83
K%21.3%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · 1B
93
Arm Strength93.7 · 1B
92
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
8
Range Runs-6.1 · 1B
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.3 · 1B
5
SB Success Rate44.4% · 1B
2
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.0%
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.5%
94
Correct Decisions67.5%
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.355 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.410
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.414
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)