Mithrandir Metrics
NL 2026-07-14 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-14

Max Muncy

NL · Hitter · bats L · age 36
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNL vs ALDylan Cease
Sample3586.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 14.0
V 14.1
Model 18.0% Market 21.3% Gap -3.2pp
BetMGM 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.3% Market 71.4% Gap +9.6pp
BetMGM -250 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 55.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.1% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
91 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity90.1
76
Hard-hit%45.1%
76
xBA0.345
75
xSLG0.667
89
xwOBA0.361
89
BB%12.1%
86
Bat speed69.9
54
K%23.7%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.9 · 3B
34
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 3B
94
Range Runs2.5 · 3B
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 3B
53
Sprint Speed27.0 · 3B
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9%
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1%
31
Correct Decisions67.0%
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.390
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.397
RegressionNegative · -0.035
Opposing pitcherDylan Cease
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)