Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Christian Walker

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample3986.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 12.0
V 15.2
Model 17.6% Market 17.7% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 445 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.4% Market 73.7% Gap +13.8pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 20.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.6% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
69
Exit velocity88.6
58
Hard-hit%39.8%
57 -22 vs proj
xBA0.306
35
xSLG0.522
57
xwOBA0.303
49 -28 vs proj
BB%7.8%
41
Bat speed72.1
80
K%23.1%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
84
Range Runs2.5 · 1B
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
42
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
15
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2%
80
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.275 to 0.372
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)