Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-07-20 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-20

Willson Contreras

BOS · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample4021.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 15.0
Model 19.5% Market 15.2% Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 38.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.7% Market 37.9% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.0% Market -- Gap +8.3pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity90.3
78
Hard-hit%47.3%
84
xBA0.383
94
xSLG0.739
96
xwOBA0.388
98
BB%9.5%
63
Bat speed74.5
97
K%24.7%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.3 · 1B
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3%
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
61
Correct Decisions65.5%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.428
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)