Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-05-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-17

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample7583.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.4
F 14.2
V 12.0
Model 16.2% Market 18.9% Gap -2.7pp
BetMGM 430 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 64.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.1% Market 77.1% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29 -46 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
65
Hard-hit%43.7%
61 -20 vs proj
xBA0.305
30
xSLG0.489
41
xwOBA0.307
44 -26 vs proj
BB%12.1%
78 +39 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
81
K%21.6%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
55
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
80
Range Runs2.2 · 3B
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 3B
21
Sprint Speed24.3 · 3B
2
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionPositive · 0.016
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)