Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-05-17 · saved artifact ROWS 65 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 1.5 · 2.5 · 3.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Edouard JulienCOL	COL vs AZMichael Soroka	P 41.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	58.1%Under prob · Palantir	40.9%no-vig	-0.39%	1.4842count	0.4195prob	0.8308proj	0.892context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
02	Spencer HorwitzPIT	PIT vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 23.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.4%Under prob · Palantir	74.7%no-vig	+4.61%	1.6101count	0.4528prob	0.9248proj	0.926context	FanDuel 310 avg 1 books
03	Gabriel MorenoAZ	AZ vs COLMichael Lorenzen	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	76.3%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.45%	1.6294count	0.471prob	0.973proj	1.067context	FanDuel 460 avg 1 books
04	Brent RookerATH	ATH vs SFAdrian Houser	P 62.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	37.1%Under prob · Palantir	27.1%no-vig	-0.43%	2.438count	0.6286prob	1.1867proj	0.937context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
05	Matt McLainCIN	CIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 23.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.4%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.59%	1.6102count	0.4577prob	0.8915proj	1.015context	FanDuel 305 avg 1 books
06	Miguel AndujarSD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 24.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	76.0%Under prob · Palantir	74.2%no-vig	+4.17%	1.6457count	0.4666prob	1.0225proj	1.012context	FanDuel 750 avg 1 books
07	Corbin CarrollAZ	AZ vs COLMichael Lorenzen	P 72.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	27.1%Under prob · Palantir	22.1%no-vig	-0.31%	2.9876count	0.7293prob	1.3976proj	1.067context	FanDuel -160 avg 1 books
08	Brenton DoyleCOL	COL vs AZMichael Soroka	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.3%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.51%	1.6098count	0.453prob	0.9039proj	0.892context	FanDuel 305 avg 1 books
09	Casey SchmittSF	SF vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 24.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	75.9%Under prob · Palantir	74.2%no-vig	+4.10%	1.6372count	0.4707prob	0.8726proj	0.972context	FanDuel 290 avg 1 books
10	Willy AdamesSF	SF vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 60.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	39.9%Under prob · Palantir	30.0%no-vig	-0.59%	2.2934count	0.6012prob	1.1099proj	0.972context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
11	José TenaWSH	WSH vs BALBrandon Young	P 24.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.9%Under prob · Palantir	74.2%no-vig	+4.10%	1.6381count	0.4757prob	1.0022proj	0.943context	FanDuel 300 avg 1 books
12	Harrison BaderSF	SF vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 24.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	75.4%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.57%	1.6644count	0.4736prob	0.938proj	0.972context	FanDuel 360 avg 1 books
13	Randy ArozarenaSEA	SEA vs SDLucas Giolito	P 56.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	43.6%Under prob · Palantir	31.5%no-vig	-0.60%	2.0731count	0.5639prob	1.0604proj	1.012context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
14	Carson KellyCHC	CHC vs CWSErick Fedde	P 24.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.8%Under prob · Palantir	73.9%no-vig	+3.93%	1.6422count	0.4631prob	0.8923proj	1.073context	FanDuel 295 avg 1 books
15	Willi CastroCOL	COL vs AZMichael Soroka	P 24.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	75.1%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.23%	1.6727count	0.4754prob	0.9788proj	0.892context	FanDuel 500 avg 1 books
16	Nick KurtzATH	ATH vs SFAdrian Houser	P 72.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	27.8%Under prob · Palantir	23.7%no-vig	-0.48%	2.9728count	0.7219prob	1.305proj	0.937context	FanDuel -135 avg 1 books
17	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs MINBailey Ober	P 24.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.7%Under prob · Palantir	73.9%no-vig	+3.87%	1.6294count	0.455prob	0.8093proj	1.068context	FanDuel 295 avg 1 books
18	Geraldo PerdomoAZ	AZ vs COLMichael Lorenzen	P 39.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	60.4%Under prob · Palantir	61.4%no-vig	-0.44%	2.3515count	0.6286prob	1.3738proj	1.067context	FanDuel 430 avg 1 books
19	Nick CastellanosSD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 59.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	40.8%Under prob · Palantir	26.7%no-vig	-0.38%	2.2142count	0.5916prob	1.2007proj	1.012context	FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
20	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty	P 45.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	54.8%Under prob · Palantir	56.2%no-vig	-0.25%	2.6732count	0.6723prob	1.4405proj	1.016context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
21	Xander BogaertsSD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 26.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	73.6%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.76%	1.7485count	0.4922prob	1.0488proj	1.012context	FanDuel 650 avg 1 books
22	Josh NaylorSEA	SEA vs SDLucas Giolito	P 65.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	34.9%Under prob · Palantir	21.9%no-vig	-0.32%	2.5754count	0.6513prob	1.3744proj	1.012context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
23	Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY	NYY vs NYMFreddy Peralta	P 41.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	58.8%Under prob · Palantir	59.9%no-vig	-0.46%	2.5213count	0.6324prob	1.2349proj	1.087context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
24	Gavin SheetsSD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 26.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	73.6%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.74%	1.7511count	0.4943prob	0.9526proj	1.012context	FanDuel 500 avg 1 books
25	Matt ChapmanSF	SF vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 62.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	37.4%Under prob · Palantir	28.7%no-vig	-0.34%	2.3474count	0.6257prob	1.1487proj	0.972context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
26	Carlos NarváezBOS	BOS vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 24.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.3%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.45%	1.6838count	0.4984prob	0.8782proj	1.057context	FanDuel 290 avg 1 books
27	Luis ArraezSF	SF vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 26.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	73.3%Under prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	+1.48%	1.7849count	0.5057prob	1.2929proj	0.972context	FanDuel 600 avg 1 books
28	Jackson MerrillSD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 68.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	31.8%Under prob · Palantir	21.4%no-vig	-0.35%	2.6752count	0.6821prob	1.3932proj	1.012context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
29	Lane ThomasKC	KC vs STLAndre Pallante	P 24.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.1%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.29%	1.6725count	0.4727prob	0.9004proj	0.948context	FanDuel 285 avg 1 books
30	Luke RaleySEA	SEA vs SDLucas Giolito	P 28.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	72.0%Under prob · Palantir	71.2%no-vig	+0.12%	1.8397count	0.5163prob	0.9004proj	1.012context	FanDuel 470 avg 1 books
31	Zack GelofATH	ATH vs SFAdrian Houser	P 39.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	60.8%Under prob · Palantir	45.7%no-vig	-0.62%	1.3434count	0.3917prob	0.7165proj	0.937context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
32	Kerry CarpenterDET	DET vs TORKevin Gausman	P 42.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	57.8%Under prob · Palantir	58.8%no-vig	-0.35%	2.5898count	0.6662prob	1.2241proj	0.973context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
33	Hunter GoodmanCOL	COL vs AZMichael Soroka	P 54.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	45.4%Under prob · Palantir	34.9%no-vig	-0.59%	1.9718count	0.5462prob	0.9621proj	0.892context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
34	José RamírezCLE	CLE vs CINBrady Singer	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	53.8%no-vig	-0.25%	2.8388count	0.7017prob	1.412proj	0.942context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
35	Fernando Tatis Jr.SD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 64.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	35.6%Under prob · Palantir	23.8%no-vig	-0.36%	2.5177count	0.6444prob	1.3138proj	1.012context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
36	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs PITPaul Skenes	P 25.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.7%Under prob · Palantir	73.2%no-vig	+2.85%	1.6981count	0.4711prob	1.0384proj	1.085context	FanDuel 280 avg 1 books
37	Manny MachadoSD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 64.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	35.9%Under prob · Palantir	22.9%no-vig	-0.31%	2.5476count	0.6413prob	1.3401proj	1.012context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
38	Tyler SoderstromATH	ATH vs SFAdrian Houser	P 30.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	69.4%Under prob · Palantir	47.2%no-vig	-0.61%	1.9577count	0.5394prob	1.0308proj	0.937context	FanDuel 210 avg 1 books
39	Rafael DeversSF	SF vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 64.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	35.9%Under prob · Palantir	27.1%no-vig	-0.57%	2.481count	0.6411prob	1.192proj	0.972context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
40	Chandler SimpsonTB	TB vs MIAEury Pérez	P 25.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.5%Under prob · Palantir	73.2%no-vig	+2.66%	1.7177count	0.4974prob	1.2681proj	0.983context	FanDuel 280 avg 1 books
41	Jeff McNeilATH	ATH vs SFAdrian Houser	P 43.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	56.3%Under prob · Palantir	37.7%no-vig	-0.66%	1.5239count	0.4372prob	0.8919proj	0.937context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
42	Bo NaylorCLE	CLE vs CINBrady Singer	P 25.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.2%Under prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	+2.37%	1.7365count	0.5038prob	0.8457proj	0.942context	FanDuel 275 avg 1 books
43	Dominic CanzoneSEA	SEA vs SDLucas Giolito	P 52.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	47.3%Under prob · Palantir	32.1%no-vig	-0.46%	1.9659count	0.5273prob	1.0279proj	1.012context	FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
44	Keibert RuizWSH	WSH vs BALBrandon Young	P 25.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.1%Under prob · Palantir	72.7%no-vig	+2.23%	1.7248count	0.4795prob	1.033proj	0.943context	FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
45	Lawrence ButlerATH	ATH vs SFAdrian Houser	P 54.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	45.2%Under prob · Palantir	32.6%no-vig	-0.64%	1.9943count	0.5476prob	1.0244proj	0.937context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
46	Austin HaysCWS	CWS vs CHCColin Rea	P 26.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.7%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.86%	1.7495count	0.5039prob	0.9696proj	0.921context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
47	Nolan ArenadoAZ	AZ vs COLMichael Lorenzen	P 55.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	44.6%Under prob · Palantir	28.0%no-vig	-0.31%	2.0406count	0.5544prob	1.1502proj	1.067context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
48	Steven KwanCLE	CLE vs CINBrady Singer	P 26.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.6%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.76%	1.7598count	0.4854prob	1.1743proj	0.942context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
49	Kyle ManzardoCLE	CLE vs CINBrady Singer	P 57.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	42.2%Under prob · Palantir	43.8%no-vig	-0.56%	2.1223count	0.5777prob	1.0098proj	0.942context	FanDuel -140 avg 1 books
50	Zach McKinstryDET	DET vs TORKevin Gausman	P 26.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.5%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.66%	1.7506count	0.5066prob	1.0009proj	0.973context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
51	Oneil CruzPIT	PIT vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 45.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	54.3%Under prob · Palantir	55.3%no-vig	-0.85%	1.5551count	0.4566prob	0.7986proj	0.926context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
52	Luis RengifoMIL	MIL vs MINBailey Ober	P 26.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.2%Under prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	+1.36%	1.7683count	0.4933prob	1.059proj	1.068context	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
53	Jake McCarthyCOL	COL vs AZMichael Soroka	P 36.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	63.9%Under prob · Palantir	41.2%no-vig	-0.33%	1.2599count	0.3606prob	0.8069proj	0.892context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
54	Jasson DomínguezNYY	NYY vs NYMFreddy Peralta	P 27.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+1.07%	1.7814count	0.4956prob	0.9974proj	1.087context	FanDuel 255 avg 1 books
55	Ben RiceNYY	NYY vs NYMFreddy Peralta	P 59.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	40.6%Under prob · Palantir	42.0%no-vig	-0.63%	2.2016count	0.5937prob	1.0241proj	1.087context	FanDuel -150 avg 1 books
56	Cedric MullinsTB	TB vs MIAEury Pérez	P 28.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 2.5	28.6%Over prob · Palantir	29.0%no-vig	-0.40%	1.8606count	0.519prob	0.9543proj	0.983context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
57	Jakob MarseeMIA	MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen	P 55.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	44.9%Under prob · Palantir	46.2%no-vig	-0.48%	1.9318count	0.5508prob	1.0973proj	0.932context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
58	Tyler FitzgeraldSF	SF vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 27.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.6%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+0.81%	1.7998count	0.5115prob	0.9711proj	0.972context	FanDuel 255 avg 1 books
59	Anthony SantanderTOR	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty	P 29.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	70.2%Under prob · Palantir	69.7%no-vig	-1.44%	0.9046count	0.2981prob	0.4174proj	1.016context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
60	Jake CronenworthSD	SD vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 27.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.5%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.71%	1.7972count	0.5104prob	1.0085proj	1.012context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
61	Agustín RamírezMIA	MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen	P 27.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.4%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.57%	1.8083count	0.5063prob	0.9533proj	0.932context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
62	Ezequiel TovarCOL	COL vs AZMichael Soroka	P 27.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.4%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.57%	1.8012count	0.5025prob	1.0249proj	0.892context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
63	J.t. RealmutoPHI	PHI vs PITPaul Skenes	P 27.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.3%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.45%	1.8101count	0.5041prob	1.0231proj	1.085context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
64	Colt KeithDET	DET vs TORKevin Gausman	P 28.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.0%Under prob · Palantir	71.2%no-vig	+0.21%	1.8185count	0.5061prob	1.0634proj	0.973context	FanDuel 245 avg 1 books
65	Tyler StephensonCIN	CIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 28.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	71.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.2%no-vig	+0.06%	1.836count	0.5147prob	0.9713proj	1.015context	FanDuel 245 avg 1 books