Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Joc Pederson

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs SEABryce Miller
Sample4313.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.056, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.052, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.1
F 12.0
V 12.8
Model 14.9% Market 14.1% Gap +0.2pp
FanDuel 580 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.5% Market 67.7% Gap +12.0pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
82
Exit velocity92.2
94
Hard-hit%51.9%
96 +15 vs proj
xBA0.335
71
xSLG0.617
83
xwOBA0.343
88
BB%11.1%
79
Bat speed70.1
58
K%24.9%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
Small sample
Range Runs-1.0 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · DH
5
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6%
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7%
44
Correct Decisions66.9%
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.280 to 0.381
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-12
Palantir 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 14193 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1758 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1254 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9476 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 766 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 993 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)