Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Joc Pederson

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs SEALogan Gilbert
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.1
F 12.0
V 12.8
Model 15.0% Market 14.1% Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 580 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.3% Market 67.7% Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.2% Market -- Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
82
Exit velocity91.9
93
Hard-hit%51.3%
95
xBA0.332
66
xSLG0.611
82
xwOBA0.342
87
BB%11.2%
80
Bat speed70.1
58
K%24.7%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
Small sample
Range Runs-1.0 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · DH
5
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.280 to 0.381
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherLogan Gilbert
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)