Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

J.t. Realmuto

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 8 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski
Sample5409.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 59.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.0% Market 73.0% Gap +13.6pp
BetMGM -270 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.5% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
27 -39 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%41.1%
63
xBA0.336
72
xSLG0.512
55
xwOBA0.320
69
BB%8.1%
45 +20 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
75
K%21.1%
59 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.0 · C
15
Catcher Throwing2.1 · C
86
Framing Runs0.1 · C
58
Pop Time1.9 · C
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · C
63
Sprint Speed28.2 · C
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
66
Correct Decisions67.0%
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.369
RegressionPositive · 0.014
Opposing pitcherHayden Wesneski
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)