Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-10 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-10

Jorge Polanco

NYM · Hitter
IN · 5 Neutral
MatchupNYM vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample4108.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.1
F 16.3
V 13.8
Model 17.9% Market 16.2% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.2% Market 75.9% Gap +10.7pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 18.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.8% Market -- Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
25 -41 vs proj
Exit velocity86.4
30
Hard-hit%31.3%
19 -40 vs proj
xBA0.278
14
xSLG0.396
11
xwOBA0.275
20 -52 vs proj
BB%9.1%
56
Bat speed68.0
27
K%14.8%
87 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
56 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.3 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · DH
9
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions60.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)