Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-17

Jorge Polanco

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupNYM vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample4176.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 15.3
Model 18.1% Market 16.2% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.8% Market 75.9% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 22.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.8% Market -- Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
28 -40 vs proj
Exit velocity85.4
22
Hard-hit%29.4%
14 -47 vs proj
xBA0.248
5
xSLG0.388
10
xwOBA0.230
4 -73 vs proj
BB%6.9%
32 -21 vs proj
Bat speed67.5
25
K%22.8%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
59 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.3 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · DH
22
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.334 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.305
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)