Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Francisco Lindor

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample6274.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 14.3
Model 21.2% Market 18.5% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.7% Market 81.7% Gap +15.7pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 30.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.5% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
63
Exit velocity91.9
92
Hard-hit%48.8%
89 +16 vs proj
xBA0.317
43
xSLG0.545
63
xwOBA0.340
80
BB%9.7%
65
Bat speed71.1
73
K%17.7%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · SS
99
Arm Strength85.2 · SS
34
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
77
Range Runs1.7 · SS
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · SS
15
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.404
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)