Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-08-11 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-11

Francisco Lindor

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample6330.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.9
Model 22.3% Market 18.5% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.4% Market 81.7% Gap +14.9pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.6% Market -- Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
67
Exit velocity91.4
90
Hard-hit%48.2%
89
xBA0.326
57
xSLG0.576
72
xwOBA0.341
83
BB%9.9%
67
Bat speed70.5
66
K%20.1%
65
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · SS
99
Arm Strength85.2 · SS
34
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
44
Range Runs-0.8 · SS
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · SS
19
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
28
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.404
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)