Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-08-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-22

Francisco Lindor

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs CWSLuis Castillo
Sample6362.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 14.9
Model 20.5% Market 18.5% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.7% Market 81.7% Gap +14.9pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.0% Market -- Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
69
Exit velocity91.5
90
Hard-hit%49.1%
92 +16 vs proj
xBA0.325
57
xSLG0.588
77
xwOBA0.354
90
BB%10.9%
77 +24 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
68
K%18.8%
73
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · SS
99
Arm Strength85.2 · SS
32
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · SS
13
Range Runs-2.2 · SS
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · SS
22
Sprint Speed26.7 · SS
31
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.404
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherLuis Castillo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)