Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Francisco Lindor

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYM vs NYYCarlos Rodón
Sample6435.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.9
F 13.2
V 15.4
Model 21.5% Market 18.5% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.2% Market 81.7% Gap +16.9pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.1% Market -- Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
69
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%47.9%
88
xBA0.310
40
xSLG0.565
71
xwOBA0.335
81
BB%9.5%
62
Bat speed70.7
68
K%19.7%
68
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · SS
98
Arm Strength85.2 · SS
33
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs-0.9 · SS
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · SS
20
Sprint Speed26.9 · SS
35
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7%
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
79
Correct Decisions65.1%
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.404
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherCarlos Rodón
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)