Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-06-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-11

Josh Bell

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs DETKeider Montero
Sample4745.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 22.2% Market 14.8% Gap +6.8pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.1% Market 71.8% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.3% Market -- Gap +7.0pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
68
Exit velocity89.4
62
Hard-hit%39.8%
51
xBA0.312
35
xSLG0.552
62
xwOBA0.302
43 -26 vs proj
BB%7.2%
31 -29 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
K%24.1%
38 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · DH
6
Sprint Speed25.6 · DH
12
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.6%
91
Correct Decisions67.5%
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.320
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)