Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-06-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Total Bases

Total Bases · Palantir.

Contact quality, base-path distribution, and pricing context without sportsbook-style chrome.

Rows
73
Date
2026-06-11
Lane
Palantir
TOTAL BASES 2026-06-11 · saved artifact ROWS 73 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Total Bases board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap TB proj2+ TBHitsTB mult Best line
01
LAD vs PITMitch Keller
P 74.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
74.5%Over prob · Palantir 82.8%no-vig -0.30% 3.1591count0.745prob1.6594proj1.108context FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
02
LAD vs PITMitch Keller
P 79.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
79.3%Over prob · Palantir 82.7%no-vig -0.37% 3.8449count0.7934prob1.622proj1.108context FanDuel -155 avg 1 books
03
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 70.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
70.1%Over prob · Palantir 78.9%no-vig -0.40% 2.8398count0.7014prob1.4328proj1.041context FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
04
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 65.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.4%Over prob · Palantir 79.8%no-vig -0.44% 2.4788count0.654prob1.4332proj1.037context FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
05
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha
P 69.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
69.9%Over prob · Palantir 78.9%no-vig -0.43% 2.9023count0.6988prob1.4147proj0.997context FanDuel -140 avg 1 books
06
LAD vs PITMitch Keller
P 66.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
66.4%Over prob · Palantir 78.1%no-vig -0.35% 2.6548count0.6639prob1.3909proj1.108context FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
07
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish
P 64.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
64.9%Over prob · Palantir 77.6%no-vig -0.32% 2.543count0.6493prob1.3618proj1.026context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
08
LAD vs PITMitch Keller
P 68.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
68.5%Over prob · Palantir 78.1%no-vig -0.36% 2.8625count0.6848prob1.4049proj1.108context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
09
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 54.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.5%Over prob · Palantir 76.6%no-vig -0.45% 1.9514count0.5451prob1.343proj1.04context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
10
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 68.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
68.3%Over prob · Palantir 76.6%no-vig -0.47% 2.9317count0.6826prob1.3461proj1.037context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
11
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker
P 68.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
68.4%Over prob · Palantir 78.9%no-vig -0.45% 2.6658count0.6841prob1.3987proj0.937context FanDuel -170 avg 1 books
12
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha
P 62.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.5%Over prob · Palantir 74.7%no-vig -0.40% 2.4238count0.6255prob1.2682proj0.997context FanDuel -140 avg 1 books
13
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.3%Over prob · Palantir 72.9%no-vig -0.38% 2.3853count0.6227prob1.2143proj1.04context FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
14
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker
P 64.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
64.7%Over prob · Palantir 75.3%no-vig -0.38% 2.4966count0.6472prob1.2661proj0.937context FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
15
MIN vs DETKeider Montero
P 67.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
67.6%Over prob · Palantir 72.2%no-vig -0.54% 2.594count0.6758prob1.164proj0.99context FanDuel -145 avg 1 books
16
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 64.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
64.3%Over prob · Palantir 72.9%no-vig -0.43% 2.5106count0.6431prob1.1948proj1.04context FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
17
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 65.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.3%Over prob · Palantir 75.7%no-vig -0.52% 2.5739count0.6531prob1.2779proj0.973context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
18
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 62.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.9%Over prob · Palantir 75.0%no-vig -0.48% 2.4056count0.6294prob1.258proj1.04context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
19
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 65.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.5%Over prob · Palantir 74.3%no-vig -0.44% 2.5898count0.6547prob1.2241proj0.973context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
20
MIN vs DETKeider Montero
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.1%Over prob · Palantir 71.8%no-vig -0.46% 2.1966count0.5811prob1.1568proj0.99context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
21
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 57.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
57.3%Over prob · Palantir 71.0%no-vig -0.60% 2.1155count0.5727prob1.1281proj1.04context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
22
CWS vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 43.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
43.5%Over prob · Palantir 69.0%no-vig -0.35% 1.5711count0.4352prob1.0867proj0.921context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
23
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 43.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
43.6%Over prob · Palantir 73.6%no-vig -0.82% 2.7102count0.6749prob1.2259proj1.041context FanDuel 280 avg 1 books
24
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 58.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.2%Over prob · Palantir 72.1%no-vig -0.44% 2.1643count0.5819prob1.1647proj1.037context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
25
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly
P 40.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
40.6%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.37% 1.4272count0.4055prob1.0863proj0.919context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
26
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha
P 59.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
59.6%Over prob · Palantir 72.1%no-vig -0.51% 2.2371count0.5964prob1.1779proj0.997context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
27
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
57.5%Over prob · Palantir 71.4%no-vig -0.63% 2.0258count0.5752prob1.1346proj0.919context FanDuel 180 avg 1 books
28
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.1%Over prob · Palantir 67.9%no-vig -0.29% 2.163count0.5805prob1.0464proj0.973context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
29
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 48.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.9%Over prob · Palantir 66.9%no-vig -0.44% 1.7464count0.4886prob1.0074proj0.973context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
30
LAD vs PITMitch Keller
P 58.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.2%Over prob · Palantir 72.5%no-vig -0.48% 2.1719count0.582prob1.1637proj1.108context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
31
MIN vs DETKeider Montero
P 48.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.3%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.45% 1.7609count0.4833prob1.0833proj0.99context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
32
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 48.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.4%Over prob · Palantir 65.6%no-vig -0.31% 1.6784count0.4843prob0.9533proj0.973context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
33
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker
P 35.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
35.6%Over prob · Palantir 71.7%no-vig -1.12% 2.2043count0.5806prob1.1419proj0.937context FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
34
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 37.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
37.9%Over prob · Palantir 72.5%no-vig -0.59% 2.3315count0.5982prob1.1693proj1.037context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
35
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 53.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.5%Over prob · Palantir 70.9%no-vig -1.06% 1.9428count0.5349prob1.1155proj0.973context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
36
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 49.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
49.8%Over prob · Palantir 66.9%no-vig -0.53% 1.7842count0.4978prob1.0182proj0.892context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
37
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish
P 54.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.8%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.47% 1.9964count0.548prob1.0318proj1.026context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
38
MIN vs DETKeider Montero
P 48.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.6%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.50% 1.7559count0.4864prob1.0099proj0.99context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
39
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish
P 43.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
43.6%Over prob · Palantir 71.3%no-vig -0.82% 2.7329count0.6615prob1.1478proj1.026context FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
40
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 36.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
36.8%Over prob · Palantir 70.3%no-vig -0.54% 2.3003count0.61prob1.1111proj1.041context FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
41
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish
P 53.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.2%Over prob · Palantir 67.9%no-vig -0.46% 1.9659count0.5324prob1.0279proj1.026context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
42
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker
P 46.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
46.7%Over prob · Palantir 65.8%no-vig -0.74% 1.591count0.4671prob0.971proj0.937context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
43
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.8%Over prob · Palantir 64.5%no-vig -0.55% 1.9408count0.5385prob0.9507proj0.892context FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
44
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha
P 36.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
36.2%Over prob · Palantir 69.9%no-vig -0.88% 2.2572count0.594prob1.0906proj0.997context FanDuel 300 avg 1 books
45
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 55.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
55.2%Over prob · Palantir 69.0%no-vig -0.65% 1.9197count0.5522prob1.0688proj0.973context FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
46
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 55.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
55.9%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.63% 2.0711count0.5589prob1.0191proj1.037context FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
47
LAD vs PITMitch Keller
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
59.5%Over prob · Palantir 67.3%no-vig -0.28% 2.3453count0.5951prob1.0297proj1.108context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
48
CWS vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 23.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
23.6%Over prob · Palantir 68.4%no-vig +4.60% 1.6205count0.4614prob1.0414proj0.921context FanDuel 700 avg 1 books
49
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker
P 44.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
44.4%Over prob · Palantir 61.7%no-vig -0.50% 1.5129count0.4444prob0.8804proj0.937context FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
50
CWS vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 48.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.9%Over prob · Palantir 67.3%no-vig -1.13% 1.7891count0.4887prob1.0056proj0.921context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
51
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha
P 49.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
49.2%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -0.42% 1.767count0.4917prob0.9814proj0.997context FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
52
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 56.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
56.7%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -0.44% 2.0128count0.5667prob0.9849proj1.04context FanDuel -180 avg 1 books
53
CWS vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 44.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
44.5%Over prob · Palantir 62.3%no-vig -0.49% 1.5918count0.4455prob0.9005proj0.921context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
54
MIN vs DETKeider Montero
P 52.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
52.0%Over prob · Palantir 66.8%no-vig -0.42% 1.8686count0.5197prob0.9994proj0.99context FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
55
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 50.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
50.6%Over prob · Palantir 60.7%no-vig -0.24% 1.7906count0.5063prob0.8624proj1.041context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
56
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha
P 51.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
51.5%Over prob · Palantir 63.8%no-vig -0.78% 1.7842count0.5149prob0.9359proj0.997context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
57
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker
P 23.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
23.7%Over prob · Palantir 63.8%no-vig +4.47% 1.6146count0.4593prob0.9392proj0.937context DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
58
MIN vs DETKeider Montero
P 51.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
51.8%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -0.52% 1.9068count0.5184prob0.9877proj0.99context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
59
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 44.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
44.9%Over prob · Palantir 61.7%no-vig -0.64% 1.5909count0.449prob0.872proj1.04context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
60
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 52.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
52.3%Over prob · Palantir 64.5%no-vig -1.16% 1.8866count0.5233prob0.94proj1.037context FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
61
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 47.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
47.4%Over prob · Palantir 65.1%no-vig -0.71% 1.7436count0.474prob0.9549proj1.037context FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
62
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 40.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
40.6%Over prob · Palantir 58.3%no-vig -0.52% 1.4407count0.4062prob0.8135proj0.892context FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
63
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 24.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.2%Over prob · Palantir 64.9%no-vig +3.97% 1.6373count0.4653prob0.9636proj0.892context FanDuel 360 avg 1 books
64
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.4%Over prob · Palantir 65.1%no-vig +3.72% 1.6579count0.4801prob0.9506proj1.041context FanDuel 500 avg 1 books
65
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 31.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
31.8%Over prob · Palantir 64.3%no-vig -0.97% 2.0524count0.5644prob0.9443proj1.041context FanDuel 380 avg 1 books
66
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish
P 27.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
27.9%Over prob · Palantir 62.8%no-vig -1.18% 1.8397count0.5231prob0.9004proj1.026context FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
67
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly
P 32.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
32.0%Over prob · Palantir 56.2%no-vig -0.37% 1.1735count0.3202prob0.7625proj0.919context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
68
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins
P 25.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
25.9%Over prob · Palantir 61.4%no-vig -1.37% 1.7233count0.4863prob0.8542proj1.037context FanDuel 300 avg 1 books
69
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly
P 38.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
38.5%Over prob · Palantir 61.4%no-vig -0.54% 1.3615count0.3849prob0.859proj0.919context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
70
DET vs MINZebby Matthews
P 20.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
20.3%Over prob · Palantir 61.4%no-vig -1.28% 1.4658count0.4316prob0.8474proj0.973context FanDuel 330 avg 1 books
71
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly
P 19.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
19.8%Over prob · Palantir 58.8%no-vig -0.89% 1.4225count0.4078prob0.7974proj0.919context FanDuel 390 avg 1 books
72
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly
P 37.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
37.4%Over prob · Palantir 55.3%no-vig -1.03% 1.285count0.3743prob0.7199proj0.919context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
73
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner
P 31.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
31.6%Over prob · Palantir 41.7%no-vig -0.96% 0.9598count0.3162prob0.478proj1.04context FanDuel -125 avg 1 books