Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-24

Josh Bell

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs ATHJacob Lopez
Sample4875.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 14.2
Model 19.8% Market 14.7% Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 555 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.8% Market 75.0% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -300 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
75
Exit velocity89.6
69
Hard-hit%42.1%
63
xBA0.328
58
xSLG0.580
72
xwOBA0.325
67
BB%7.4%
37 -26 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
65
K%21.7%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
29
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.7 · DH
3
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
20
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6%
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.1%
93
Correct Decisions68.3%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherJacob Lopez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)