Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
291
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 16.6%Palantir 10.0%market +6.6pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 10.8
5.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
02
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
 17.0%Palantir 11.0%market +6.1pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 13.2
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 2
 14.7%Palantir 10.1%market +4.6pp
P 14.7
F 13.6
V 13.0
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
04
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 14.9%Palantir 10.5%market +4.4pp
P 14.9
F 8.6
V 11.5
6.3pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
05
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 18.2%Palantir 14.0%market +4.1pp
P 18.2
F 15.5
V 14.5
3.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
06
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 14.8%Palantir 11.2%market +3.6pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 11.8
3.1pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
07
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 17.5%Palantir 14.4%market +3.2pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 16.6
2.0pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
08
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 7
 12.7%Palantir 9.6%market +3.1pp
P 12.7
F 11.4
V 10.8
1.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
09
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
 15.5%Palantir 12.5%market +3.0pp
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 14.0
1.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
10
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 16.1%Palantir 13.3%market +2.8pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
11
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 17.1%Palantir 14.4%market +2.8pp
P 17.1
F 15.5
V 16.2
1.6pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
12
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 6
 11.4%Palantir 8.7%market +2.7pp
P 11.4
F 1.7
V 10.0
9.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
13
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 15.6%Palantir 13.0%market +2.6pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 11.1
4.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 18.8%Palantir 16.4%market +2.4pp
P 18.8
F 22.3
V 15.3
6.9pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
15
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 17.6%Palantir 15.6%market +2.0pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 17.4
2.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
16
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 16.8%Palantir 14.9%market +2.0pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
17
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 11.5%Palantir 9.7%market +1.8pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 11.3
0.9pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
18
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 16.3%Palantir 15.0%market +1.3pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.6pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
19
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
 16.1%Palantir 14.8%market +1.3pp
P 16.1
F 20.2
V 13.7
6.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
20
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 15.9%Palantir 15.0%market +0.9pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 15.7
1.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
21
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
 11.8%Palantir 11.0%market +0.8pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 9.4
2.8pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
22
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 6
 13.2%Palantir 12.4%market +0.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 11.8
1.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
23
Spencer Steer CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 4
 14.4%Palantir 13.7%market +0.7pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.9
1.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
24
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 15.2%Palantir 14.7%market +0.5pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
25
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
26
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 6
 13.0%Palantir 13.4%market -0.5pp
P 13.0
F 7.4
V 10.5
5.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
27
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 14.8%market -0.6pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 12.8
2.0pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
28
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 15.8%Palantir 16.4%market -0.6pp
P 15.8
F 13.6
V 18.3
4.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
29
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 15.6%Palantir 16.3%market -0.7pp
P 15.6
F 11.4
V 18.0
6.6pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
30
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 12.8%market -0.7pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 12.6
0.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
31
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
 15.9%Palantir 16.7%market -0.8pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 18.4
3.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
32
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 15.1%Palantir 16.1%market -1.0pp
P 15.1
F 14.9
V 15.3
0.4pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
33
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 17.7%Palantir 18.7%market -1.0pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 16.1
2.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
34
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 12.8%Palantir 14.1%market -1.3pp
P 12.8
F 11.6
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
35
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 13.2%Palantir 14.8%market -1.6pp
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 16.5
3.3pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
36
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 10.1%Palantir 7.9%market +2.3pp
P 10.1
F 8.6
V 11.6
3.0pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
37
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 12.4%Palantir 10.9%market +1.4pp
P 12.4
F 3.4
V 13.2
9.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
38
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 1
 8.9%Palantir 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 8.9
F 8.6
V 11.4
2.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 7
 14.3%Palantir 13.4%market +0.9pp
P 14.3
F 11.4
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
40
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
 8.1%Palantir 7.7%market +0.4pp
P 8.1
F 3.4
V 12.8
9.4pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 7
 8.9%Palantir 8.5%market +0.4pp
P 8.9
F 7.4
V 9.5
2.0pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
42
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 7.6%Palantir 8.0%market -0.4pp
P 7.6
F 3.4
V 10.1
6.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 16.1%Palantir 16.7%market -0.6pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.5pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
44
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
 10.4%Palantir 11.2%market -0.8pp
P 10.4
F 9.6
V 10.1
0.8pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 795 avg 3 books
45
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 16.1%Palantir 17.2%market -1.2pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 17.8
2.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
46
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
 15.5%Palantir 17.0%market -1.5pp
P 15.5
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
47
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
 14.9%Palantir 16.8%market -1.9pp
P 14.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.7pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 495 avg 3 books
48
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 15.6%Palantir 18.0%market -2.4pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.9
0.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
49
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 5
 11.1%Palantir 13.9%market -2.8pp
P 11.1
F 9.6
V 15.1
5.5pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
50
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 14.3%Palantir 17.1%market -2.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.6
V 16.2
2.6pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
51
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 13.2%Palantir 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 14.1
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
52
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 14.9%Palantir 18.2%market -3.3pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
53
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 15.5%Palantir 18.9%market -3.4pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 18.3
3.4pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
54
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 14.9%Palantir 18.4%market -3.5pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 14.2
2.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
55
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 16.7%market -3.7pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 14.7
2.5pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
56
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
 14.6%Palantir 18.4%market -3.7pp
P 14.6
F 12.2
V 19.6
7.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
57
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
 15.8%Palantir 19.6%market -3.8pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
58
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 17.9%market -4.0pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
59
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4
 14.6%Palantir 18.7%market -4.1pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.8
3.4pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
60
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
 14.4%Palantir 19.1%market -4.6pp
P 14.4
F 12.2
V 19.6
7.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
61
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 12.8%Palantir 17.7%market -4.9pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 13.9
1.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
62
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
 11.1%Palantir 16.0%market -4.9pp
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 16.3
5.2pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
63
Shea Langeliers ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 15.7%Palantir 20.8%market -5.2pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
64
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 12.2%Palantir 17.5%market -5.3pp
P 12.2
F 11.4
V 14.8
3.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
65
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 13.7%Palantir 19.2%market -5.5pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 16.8
3.0pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 16.0%Palantir 22.0%market -6.0pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.4
0.5pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
67
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 20.8%market -6.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 15.9
2.4pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
68
Jorge Soler LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 10.9%Palantir 17.2%market -6.4pp
P 10.9
F 9.3
V 17.0
7.7pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
69
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 12.4%Palantir 19.2%market -6.8pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 16.1
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
70
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 13.7%Palantir 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 13.7
F 12.2
V 14.6
2.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
71
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
 12.5%Palantir 19.6%market -7.1pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 15.9
3.7pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
72
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 14.0%Palantir 21.7%market -7.8pp
P 14.0
F 12.2
V 14.8
2.6pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
73
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 22.0%market -7.8pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
74
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 14.9%Palantir 23.0%market -8.1pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
75
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
 14.6%Palantir 22.7%market -8.2pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 14.8
1.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
76
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 16.4%Palantir 25.6%market -9.3pp
P 16.4
F 11.6
V 16.8
5.2pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
77
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 13.3%Palantir 23.3%market -10.0pp
P 13.3
F 11.4
V 13.0
1.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
78
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 14.9%Palantir 27.0%market -12.1pp
P 14.9
F 13.6
V 15.1
1.5pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
79
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 14.5%Palantir 29.0%market -14.5pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 24.4
9.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

776 sample flags
Status2306roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.