Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Mookie Betts

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample6504.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 13.9
Model 18.8% Market 15.4% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 525 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.1% Market 82.0% Gap +17.0pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.4% Market -- Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70
Exit velocity90.2
79
Hard-hit%37.9%
47
xBA0.315
47
xSLG0.487
45
xwOBA0.332
78
BB%9.1%
58
Bat speed67.5
26
K%11.0%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
79
Arm Strength87.7 · SS
56
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
95
Range Runs7.1 · SS
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · SS
38
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
28
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.4%
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6%
27
Correct Decisions69.4%
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.386
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.403
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)