Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-24

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs SEABryce Miller
Sample4092.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 17.4
Model 22.3% Market 15.6% Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.4% Market 78.5% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
89 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity92.5
94
Hard-hit%52.2%
95
xBA0.383
93
xSLG0.670
91
xwOBA0.374
95 +19 vs proj
BB%8.2%
46 -16 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
K%21.7%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · RF
13
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
41
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-1.8 · RF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · RF
46
Bolts4.0 · RF
49
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2%
50
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.379
RegressionPositive · 0.018
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)