Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 4 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample4103.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.6
F 20.2
V 12.9
Model 23.6% Market 15.6% Gap +7.4pp
FanDuel 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.4% Market 78.5% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.2% Market -- Gap +5.1pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
89 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity92.5
94
Hard-hit%52.5%
95
xBA0.384
95
xSLG0.669
91
xwOBA0.375
96 +19 vs proj
BB%8.3%
47
Bat speed70.6
66
K%21.6%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · RF
13
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
41
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-1.7 · RF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · RF
46
Bolts4.0 · RF
49
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2%
50
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.379
RegressionPositive · 0.019
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)