Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-28

Trea Turner

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample5584.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.1
Model 19.7% Market 14.1% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 580 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 84.9% Market 85.9% Gap +17.0pp
BetMGM -610 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 33.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.8% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
44
Exit velocity89.0
62
Hard-hit%42.0%
63
xBA0.326
57
xSLG0.494
44
xwOBA0.297
39 -24 vs proj
BB%6.1%
22
Bat speed70.2
58
K%22.7%
49 -28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
82
Arm Strength85.9 · SS
43
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · SS
2
Range Runs-6.2 · SS
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.6 · SS
93
Bolts58.0 · SS
97
SB Success Rate88.2% · SS
74
Sprint Speed29.8 · SS
98
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
63
Correct Decisions64.4%
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.393
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)