Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Trea Turner

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs ATLChris Sale
Sample5742.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.1
F 12.0
V 11.3
Model 19.4% Market 14.7% Gap +4.1pp
FanDuel 555 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 71.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.6% Market 87.1% Gap +19.0pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.5% Market -- Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47
Exit velocity88.3
55
Hard-hit%39.7%
56
xBA0.316
48
xSLG0.479
43
xwOBA0.293
39 -30 vs proj
BB%6.3%
25
Bat speed70.0
56
K%21.4%
58 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
74
Arm Strength85.9 · SS
41
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · SS
3
Range Runs-5.2 · SS
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.6 · SS
92
Bolts81.0 · SS
98
SB Success Rate88.9% · SS
79
Sprint Speed29.8 · SS
98
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5%
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
62
Correct Decisions64.3%
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · small sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.389
3
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)