Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Alex Bregman

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs STLDustin May
Sample5002.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 12.2
Model 16.6% Market 14.6% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.5% Market 78.5% Gap +14.7pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.4% Market -- Gap +5.0pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.5%
27
Exit velocity88.2
52
Hard-hit%37.6%
44 -15 vs proj
xBA0.287
18
xSLG0.428
22
xwOBA0.305
49 -22 vs proj
BB%11.0%
76 +20 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
K%16.1%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.0 · 3B
12
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
88
Range Runs3.2 · 3B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 3B
37
Sprint Speed26.1 · 3B
21
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.9%
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0%
24
Correct Decisions68.8%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.370
RegressionNegative · -0.044
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)