Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-05 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-05

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 9 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs SFRobbie Ray
Sample4933.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 22.1% Market 13.6% Gap +8.0pp
FanDuel 605 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.2% Market 72.9% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
39 -27 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
66
Hard-hit%43.7%
66
xBA0.276
13
xSLG0.489
41
xwOBA0.295
35 -34 vs proj
BB%11.8%
80 +37 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
41
K%24.3%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
79
Arm Strength85.6 · SS
49
Outs Above Avg5.0 · SS
96
Range Runs4.2 · SS
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · SS
96
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4%
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0%
92
Correct Decisions71.6%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)