Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-06-05 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Total Bases

Total Bases · Palantir.

Contact quality, base-path distribution, and pricing context without sportsbook-style chrome.

Rows
76
Date
2026-06-05
Lane
Palantir
TOTAL BASES 2026-06-05 · saved artifact ROWS 76 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 1.5 · 2.5
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Total Bases board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap TB proj2+ TBHitsTB mult Best line
01
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 59.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
59.8%Over prob · Palantir 79.5%no-vig -0.32% 2.1698count0.598prob1.4653proj1.057context FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
02
TOR vs BALBrandon Young
P 28.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 1.5
71.1%Under prob · Palantir 69.7%no-vig -1.41% 0.9046count0.2889prob0.4174proj1.028context BetMGM 230 avg 1 books
03
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo
P 23.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 2.5
3 of 3
76.5%Under prob · Palantir 74.7%no-vig +4.70% 1.6068count0.4372prob0.9311proj0.926context DraftKings 310 avg 1 books
04
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray
P 69.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
69.0%Over prob · Palantir 80.4%no-vig -0.36% 2.836count0.6896prob1.4909proj1.084context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
05
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 2.5
3 of 3
75.6%Under prob · Palantir 73.9%no-vig +3.76% 1.6444count0.4671prob0.8168proj1.035context DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
06
TOR vs BALBrandon Young
P 66.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
66.4%Over prob · Palantir 79.5%no-vig -0.37% 2.6732count0.6639prob1.4405proj1.028context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
07
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 53.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.4%Over prob · Palantir 77.6%no-vig -0.36% 1.8974count0.5345prob1.3723proj0.947context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
08
TB vs MIARyan Gusto
P 42.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
42.0%Over prob · Palantir 79.5%no-vig -0.52% 2.4852count0.644prob1.4252proj0.969context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
09
TB vs MIARyan Gusto
P 52.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
52.1%Over prob · Palantir 76.3%no-vig -0.36% 1.7985count0.5208prob1.3097proj0.969context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
10
ATL vs PITMitch Keller
P 69.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
69.4%Over prob · Palantir 77.6%no-vig -0.43% 2.9066count0.6943prob1.3811proj1.06context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
11
BOS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 68.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
68.7%Over prob · Palantir 77.1%no-vig -0.39% 2.5603count0.6871prob1.3395proj1.055context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
12
ATL vs PITMitch Keller
P 65.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.0%Over prob · Palantir 76.0%no-vig -0.48% 2.534count0.6498prob1.2928proj1.06context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
13
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 65.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.1%Over prob · Palantir 75.0%no-vig -0.30% 2.608count0.651prob1.2713proj0.918context FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
14
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
60.8%Over prob · Palantir 75.0%no-vig -0.35% 2.3133count0.6082prob1.2504proj1.005context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
15
TOR vs BALBrandon Young
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.6%Over prob · Palantir 75.7%no-vig -0.44% 2.4829count0.6263prob1.2943proj1.028context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
16
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 66.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
66.2%Over prob · Palantir 74.3%no-vig -0.33% 2.6151count0.662prob1.2521proj0.947context FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
17
ATL vs PITMitch Keller
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
61.9%Over prob · Palantir 75.7%no-vig -0.46% 2.3741count0.6187prob1.2921proj1.06context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
18
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
63.8%Over prob · Palantir 76.2%no-vig -0.35% 2.5104count0.6377prob1.3128proj1.057context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
19
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 62.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.1%Over prob · Palantir 72.9%no-vig -0.38% 2.3853count0.6211prob1.2143proj1.057context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
20
BOS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 63.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
63.0%Over prob · Palantir 74.7%no-vig -0.48% 2.4721count0.6304prob1.2627proj1.055context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
21
DET vs SEABryan Woo
P 65.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.1%Over prob · Palantir 73.3%no-vig -0.34% 2.5061count0.6508prob1.1952proj0.973context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
22
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 59.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
59.2%Over prob · Palantir 72.9%no-vig -0.41% 2.256count0.5921prob1.1997proj1.057context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
23
ATL vs PITMitch Keller
P 57.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
57.2%Over prob · Palantir 72.6%no-vig -0.47% 2.137count0.5721prob1.1715proj1.06context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
24
DET vs SEABryan Woo
P 63.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
63.3%Over prob · Palantir 74.0%no-vig -0.46% 2.4327count0.6328prob1.2267proj0.973context FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
25
TB vs MIARyan Gusto
P 59.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
59.7%Over prob · Palantir 74.7%no-vig -0.36% 2.2236count0.5967prob1.2318proj0.969context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
26
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 24.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.5%Over prob · Palantir 72.6%no-vig +3.71% 1.6714count0.478prob1.1707proj0.918context FanDuel 600 avg 1 books
27
MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen
P 54.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.4%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.30% 1.9047count0.5436prob1.0865proj0.919context FanDuel 180 avg 1 books
28
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 59.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
59.4%Over prob · Palantir 72.9%no-vig -0.52% 2.1876count0.5936prob1.1823proj0.918context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
29
TB vs MIARyan Gusto
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.3%Over prob · Palantir 71.3%no-vig -0.34% 2.4228count0.6232prob1.1312proj0.969context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
30
TOR vs BALBrandon Young
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.8%Over prob · Palantir 69.0%no-vig -0.40% 1.9033count0.5376prob1.0671proj1.028context FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
31
KC vs MINZebby Matthews
P 61.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
61.0%Over prob · Palantir 73.3%no-vig -0.54% 2.336count0.61prob1.1908proj0.951context FanDuel -160 avg 1 books
32
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.0%Over prob · Palantir 69.9%no-vig -0.35% 2.1666count0.5799prob1.1083proj1.005context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
33
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez
P 54.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.9%Over prob · Palantir 70.0%no-vig -0.71% 1.9968count0.5485prob1.0927proj1.005context FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
34
DET vs SEABryan Woo
P 50.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
50.2%Over prob · Palantir 68.5%no-vig -0.59% 1.8019count0.5016prob1.0565proj0.973context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
35
DET vs SEABryan Woo
P 53.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.7%Over prob · Palantir 65.1%no-vig -0.39% 1.9631count0.5369prob0.9759proj0.973context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
36
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez
P 24.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.5%Over prob · Palantir 69.0%no-vig +3.71% 1.6575count0.4854prob1.0483proj1.005context FanDuel 650 avg 1 books
37
NYM vs SDMichael King
P 37.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
37.8%Over prob · Palantir 72.5%no-vig -0.62% 2.3315count0.6068prob1.1693proj1.03context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
38
TB vs MIARyan Gusto
P 54.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.2%Over prob · Palantir 65.6%no-vig -0.34% 1.949count0.5418prob0.9869proj0.969context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
39
TOR vs BALBrandon Young
P 60.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
60.7%Over prob · Palantir 67.9%no-vig -0.40% 2.2698count0.607prob1.0441proj1.028context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
40
BOS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 49.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
49.5%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.47% 1.7629count0.4952prob1.0194proj1.055context FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
41
ATL vs PITMitch Keller
P 56.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
56.7%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.48% 2.0802count0.5671prob1.0306proj1.06context FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
42
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo
P 39.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
39.7%Over prob · Palantir 66.9%no-vig -0.56% 1.4481count0.3972prob1.0275proj0.926context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
43
MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen
P 38.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
38.7%Over prob · Palantir 68.5%no-vig -0.66% 1.3726count0.3869prob1.0588proj0.919context FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
44
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 23.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
23.6%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig +4.55% 1.6157count0.4715prob0.9903proj0.947context FanDuel 470 avg 1 books
45
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 54.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.1%Over prob · Palantir 65.8%no-vig -0.71% 1.9953count0.5415prob0.9923proj0.947context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
46
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 56.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
56.7%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.51% 2.0564count0.5669prob1.0322proj0.947context FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
47
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray
P 53.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.3%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.58% 1.9247count0.5331prob1.0697proj1.084context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
48
TOR vs BALBrandon Young
P 24.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.5%Over prob · Palantir 66.8%no-vig +3.65% 1.6582count0.4686prob1.005proj1.028context DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
49
WSH vs AZMerrill Kelly
P 24.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.3%Over prob · Palantir 66.4%no-vig +3.91% 1.6465count0.4572prob0.9994proj0.941context DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
50
DET vs SEABryan Woo
P 43.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
43.5%Over prob · Palantir 63.7%no-vig -0.31% 1.5594count0.4347prob0.929proj0.973context FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
51
NYM vs SDMichael King
P 32.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
32.3%Over prob · Palantir 67.3%no-vig -1.02% 2.0579count0.5625prob1.0144proj1.03context FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
52
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 49.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
49.8%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -0.44% 1.8229count0.4983prob0.9905proj1.057context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
53
DET vs SEABryan Woo
P 43.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
43.0%Over prob · Palantir 62.3%no-vig -0.50% 1.5count0.4302prob0.8796proj0.973context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
54
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray
P 58.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.4%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.66% 2.2016count0.5842prob1.0241proj1.084context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
55
MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen
P 36.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
36.8%Over prob · Palantir 59.9%no-vig -0.31% 1.3101count0.3675prob0.8364proj0.919context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
56
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo
P 42.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
42.5%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -0.50% 1.5023count0.4253prob0.9867proj0.926context FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
57
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 23.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
23.5%Over prob · Palantir 64.5%no-vig +4.69% 1.6108count0.4589prob0.9361proj0.918context DraftKings 310 avg 1 books
58
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray
P 48.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.8%Over prob · Palantir 66.8%no-vig -1.16% 1.7814count0.4884prob0.9974proj1.084context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
59
KC vs MINZebby Matthews
P 24.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.2%Over prob · Palantir 64.5%no-vig +3.95% 1.6502count0.4858prob0.9371proj0.951context DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
60
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 50.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
50.3%Over prob · Palantir 61.7%no-vig -0.69% 1.7903count0.5032prob0.8649proj0.918context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
61
DET vs SEABryan Woo
P 37.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
37.7%Over prob · Palantir 57.5%no-vig -0.60% 1.2997count0.377prob0.7782proj0.973context FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
62
BOS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 53.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.3%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -1.24% 1.8819count0.5331prob0.9816proj1.055context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
63
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha
P 35.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
35.5%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -0.88% 2.3count0.6281prob0.9939proj0.998context FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
64
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 54.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.0%Over prob · Palantir 63.7%no-vig -0.59% 1.8529count0.54prob0.9067proj1.057context FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
65
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo
P 43.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
43.1%Over prob · Palantir 61.7%no-vig -0.79% 1.5431count0.431prob0.8811proj0.926context FanDuel 180 avg 1 books
66
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 35.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
35.7%Over prob · Palantir 53.2%no-vig -0.50% 1.2count0.357prob0.6783proj0.918context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
67
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo
P 53.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.6%Over prob · Palantir 61.7%no-vig -0.95% 1.9432count0.536prob0.8746proj0.926context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
68
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray
P 49.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
49.2%Over prob · Palantir 61.4%no-vig -0.53% 1.8613count0.4922prob0.8772proj1.084context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
69
CLE vs TEXKumar Rocker
P 45.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
45.0%Over prob · Palantir 58.8%no-vig -1.54% 1.5401count0.4497prob0.8185proj0.936context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
70
NYM vs SDMichael King
P 47.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
47.8%Over prob · Palantir 60.7%no-vig -0.97% 1.6815count0.4781prob0.8391proj1.03context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
71
MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen
P 38.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
38.2%Over prob · Palantir 57.1%no-vig -0.44% 1.3441count0.3818prob0.7666proj0.919context FanDuel 210 avg 1 books
72
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 20.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
20.0%Over prob · Palantir 55.3%no-vig -1.12% 1.4356count0.4332prob0.7298proj0.918context FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
73
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 20.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
20.5%Over prob · Palantir 53.8%no-vig -1.33% 1.4564count0.4412prob0.6931proj1.057context FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
74
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera
P 36.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
36.1%Over prob · Palantir 52.2%no-vig -0.99% 1.2284count0.3606prob0.6741proj0.947context FanDuel -135 avg 1 books
75
MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen
P 30.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
30.0%Over prob · Palantir 55.3%no-vig -0.88% 1.1167count0.2998prob0.7373proj0.919context FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
76
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray
P 32.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
32.1%Over prob · Palantir 42.9%no-vig -0.71% 0.9958count0.3207prob0.4952proj1.057context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books