Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample5078.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 11.7
Model 19.8% Market 13.6% Gap +5.6pp
FanDuel 605 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.5% Market 76.5% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
49 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
73
Hard-hit%43.8%
72
xBA0.304
29
xSLG0.539
61
xwOBA0.309
54 -19 vs proj
BB%9.8%
66 +17 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
49
K%23.3%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
73
Arm Strength85.6 · SS
41
Outs Above Avg10.0 · SS
99
Range Runs7.3 · SS
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.1 · SS
97
Bolts1.0 · SS
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
94
Sprint Speed28.4 · SS
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4%
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7%
92
Correct Decisions72.1%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)