Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-13 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-13

Byron Buxton

MIN · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 13.7
Model 17.6% Market 21.1% Gap -3.5pp
BetMGM 375 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.9% Market 75.9% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.9% Market -- Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.4%
100
Exit velocity90.4
81
Hard-hit%47.8%
86
xBA0.342
74
xSLG0.694
94
xwOBA0.348
86
BB%7.0%
33
Bat speed72.5
84
K%24.5%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · CF
17
Arm Strength95.9 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg3.0 · CF
93
Range Runs2.4 · CF
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · CF
46
Bolts33.0 · CF
89
Sprint Speed29.8 · CF
98
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8%
80
Correct Decisions66.1%
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.384 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)